rtarroyo

@rtarroyo

#685,04558

0x0244285bdc4faab6776fb01f5770f21785dac49b

~52d· 152 markets · 346 tradesVol: $1,727 @rtarroyo2026-08-04 23:53:18
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

58
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

47% (64/137)8.4/20
1.24x (win $156 / loss $127)5.4/15
Annualised Sharpe 1.88515/15
Sortino 4.20310/10
$+0.0889 per $1 invested4.4/10
HHI 180 (137 markets)10/10
19/40 profitable days (48%)4.4/10
Max DD 74% of peak ($34 / $46)0/10

Badges

3
Profitable
PnL $+1
Contrarian
75% entries < $0.55
Win Streak
7 wins in a row

Categories

9
🎭 CULTURE#658,506$-6Vol: $476
SPORTS#220,623$23Vol: $433
CRYPTO#277,728$6Vol: $409
🏛️ POLITICS#1,329,089$-14Vol: $245
📈 ECONOMICS#98,180$1Vol: $77
📢 MENTIONS#120,853$-7Vol: $41
💰 FINANCE#527,906$-3Vol: $23
🌤️ WEATHER#45,696$2Vol: $16
💻 TECH#73,673$0Vol: $6

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$1
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,727
Total Redeem
$3
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
152
total markets
Trades
224B / 122S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~52d

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$0
Vol: $0
Month
$0
Vol: $0
All Time
$1
Vol: $1,727

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
47%
64W / 73L events
Realized PnL
$1
Win Rate
47%
64W / 73L
Profit Factor
1.24x
Avg Win
$2
Avg Loss
$-2

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $66 (46.67375886524823% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?$29
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?$22
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?$14
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?$13
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?$9
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?$7
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET$3
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?$3
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$3
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?$3

Top Losers

Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?$-8
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-6
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?$-4
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?$-4
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?$-4
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?$-4
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?$-4
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET$-3
Will Kamala Harris say "Biden" on Jimmy Kimmel Live?$-3
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?$-3

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.097
Sortino
0.218
HHI
94
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.101
Kelly %
0.6%
Half-Kelly
0.3%
Top-1 market
4.1%
Top-5 markets
13.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1.7
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.7
Active Hours
19/24
Extended
Peak Hour
22:00 UTC
Median Gap
7.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.7h
between trades
Night Trading
16%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.64
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.1

Bot Detection

#6
10
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 422s — normal for humanCV 0.64 — diverse sizes (human-like)16% night trades — unusual hours19/24 hours — extended activity2 trades/day — normal0.7 markets/day — normal32% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 22:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.33
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)19.6%
Mid (20-55c)55.4%
High (>55c)25%

Sessions

#12
6/22/2026, 10:10:29 AM12 trades$865 min
6/17/2026, 3:50:05 PM24 trades$644 min
6/21/2026, 11:54:55 PM6 trades$264 min
6/25/2026, 5:42:13 PM4 trades$250 min
4/7/2026, 10:01:23 PM14 trades$193 min
6/21/2026, 9:59:53 PM4 trades$190 min
6/20/2026, 10:15:23 PM2 trades$180 min
6/21/2026, 1:22:01 PM8 trades$140 min
6/19/2026, 5:51:50 PM6 trades$131 min
6/21/2026, 1:34:37 AM4 trades$125 min
6/18/2026, 11:21:29 AM2 trades$120 min
7/2/2026, 10:21:40 PM4 trades$110 min
6/20/2026, 10:25:22 AM2 trades$100 min
6/22/2026, 1:23:55 PM2 trades$100 min
6/21/2026, 9:07:53 PM2 trades$100 min
2/3/2026, 4:39:04 PM7 trades$109 min
2/12/2026, 11:34:47 AM4 trades$98 min
2/3/2026, 6:56:18 PM4 trades$92 min
6/22/2026, 2:17:56 AM2 trades$80 min
1/31/2026, 8:19:48 PM3 trades$82 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-06
12-18
02-02
02-11
02-24
03-15
06-20

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 54 days (recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
35.3% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.33/mkt
Entry Bias
MIXED
L19.6 / M55.4 / H25