@LightningArbCap

#2,970,19569

0x06a31df91c87a8df3b5699cbf4e4eb9e0b58fa45

~26d· 222 markets · 1532 tradesVol: $117,0102026-08-04 18:12:05
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

69
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

61% (136/222)15.6/20
1.38x (win $8,350 / loss $6,070)7.2/15
Annualised Sharpe 2.78015/15
Sortino 7.12710/10
$+0.1093 per $1 invested5.5/10
HHI 161 (222 markets)10/10
12/25 profitable days (48%)4.5/10
Max DD 66% of peak ($1,538 / $2,342)0.9/10

Badges

3
Sniper
Win rate 61%
DCA Master
Avg 7.0 entries/market
Win Streak
15 wins in a row

Categories

3
🌤️ WEATHER#298,061$-1,247Vol: $111,029
⚽ SPORTS#1,742,380$-206Vol: $4,944
₿ CRYPTO#1,415,683$-61Vol: $1,036

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-1,514
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$117,010
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
222
total markets
Trades
368B / 1164S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~26d

Periods

#2
Today
$-39
Vol: $183
Week
$-39
Vol: $183
Month
$-36
Vol: $183
All Time
$-1,514
Vol: $117,010

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
61%
136W / 86L events
Realized PnL
$-1,514
Win Rate
61%
136W / 86L
Profit Factor
1.38x
Avg Win
$61
Avg Loss
$-98

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $2,365 (1.5618507340461365% of PnL)

Top Winners

France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5$922
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17?$890
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17?$553
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5$503
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5$277
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?$250
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27?$215
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 14?$166
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27?$157
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19?$156

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14?$-704
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?$-600
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24?$-424
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 26?$-382
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17?$-300
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 15?$-259
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17?$-200
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?$-200
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15?$-200
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15?$-200

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.143
Sortino
0.288
HHI
126
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.107
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
3.8%
Top-5 markets
15.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
35.6
Active
Markets / Day
5.2
Active Hours
21/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
33s
between trades
Avg Gap
57.3m
between trades
Night Trading
36%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.38
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
24.4

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 33s — normal for humanCV 1.38 — diverse sizes (human-like)36% night trades — never sleeps21/24 hours — extended activity36 trades/day — high frequency5.2 markets/day — normal24% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
6.95
Active DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)16.6%
Mid (20-55c)9.8%
High (>55c)73.6%

Sessions

#12
6/16/2026, 5:53:05 PM187 trades$4,3938 min
7/23/2026, 2:34:42 AM28 trades$2,9843 min
6/18/2026, 1:00:55 PM117 trades$2,20014 min
6/21/2026, 6:49:58 PM12 trades$1,7093 min
6/17/2026, 2:52:08 PM75 trades$1,53711 min
6/20/2026, 2:34:44 PM59 trades$1,4615 min
6/16/2026, 3:32:10 AM30 trades$1,2289 min
6/15/2026, 1:20:55 AM39 trades$1,0958 min
6/19/2026, 3:59:14 AM42 trades$9081 min
6/27/2026, 8:54:08 PM18 trades$8636 min
6/16/2026, 12:49:55 AM11 trades$8544 min
6/16/2026, 8:10:57 AM9 trades$7922 min
6/25/2026, 12:28:52 PM34 trades$6965 min
6/15/2026, 2:24:22 AM2 trades$6250 min
6/15/2026, 6:06:07 AM13 trades$6072 min
6/16/2026, 7:39:05 PM23 trades$5583 min
6/15/2026, 6:32:13 PM6 trades$5264 min
7/23/2026, 2:50:01 AM8 trades$5082 min
6/14/2026, 6:33:04 PM12 trades$5061 min
6/16/2026, 6:45:25 AM15 trades$4972 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
06-14
06-18
06-23
06-28
07-08
07-17
07-26

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
80% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
76% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 6.95/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L16.6 / M9.8 / H73.6