Occult

@Occult

#4,27220

0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4

~572d· 1337 markets · 21321 tradesVol: $8,012,233 @OccultStories2026-08-05 16:37:42
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

20
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

40% (522/1306)5/20
0.79x (win $189,812 / loss $239,134)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -0.6320/15
Sortino -0.6830/10
$-0.0411 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 85 (1306 markets)10/10
216/431 profitable days (50%)5/10
Max DD 154% of peak ($140,066 / $90,744)0/10

Badges

6
Profitable
PnL $+40,572
Lottery Player
55% entries < $0.20
Whale
$1,199,528 invested
High Roller
$1,871/day
Win Streak
7 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

9
₿ CRYPTO#1,079$38,715Vol: $6,611,585
🎭 CULTURE#3,408$1,758Vol: $422,781
🏛️ POLITICS#1,593,579$-421Vol: $369,156
📈 ECONOMICS#666,669$-162Vol: $271,507
💰 FINANCE#5,706$640Vol: $191,232
⚽ SPORTS#1,403,776$-14Vol: $49,723
💻 TECH#257,888$-1,046Vol: $40,112
📢 MENTIONS#1,864$621Vol: $9,235
🌤️ WEATHER#199,337$-1Vol: $20

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$40,572
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$8,012,233
Total Redeem
$16
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
1337
total markets
Trades
12367B / 8954S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~572d

Periods

#2
Today
$-100
Vol: $1,083
Week
$-222
Vol: $3,339
Month
$-292
Vol: $6,008
All Time
$40,572
Vol: $8,012,233

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
40%
522W / 784L events
Realized PnL
$40,572
Win Rate
40%
522W / 784L
Profit Factor
0.79x
Avg Win
$364
Avg Loss
$-313

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $27,290 (0.6726349569409595% of PnL)

Top Winners

MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?$12,489
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?$9,799
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 26-1?$5,003
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026?$4,870
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 12-18?$4,685
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 12-18?$4,681
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?$4,144
MicroStrategy purchases >8000 BTC June 10-16?$4,140
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?$3,190
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30?$3,093

Top Losers

Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?$-32,882
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?$-24,740
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?$-17,873
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?$-15,009
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?$-7,509
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 2-8?$-6,246
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?$-6,083
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 12-18?$-5,879
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 23-March 1?$-4,687
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February?$-3,969

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.033
Sortino
-0.026
HHI
91
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.041
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
2.8%
Top-5 markets
13%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
33.3
Active
Markets / Day
2.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
47.2m
between trades
Night Trading
20%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.01
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
6 min
Avg Trades / Session
11.0

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 236s — normal for humanCV 4.01 — diverse sizes (human-like)20% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock33 trades/day — high frequency2.1 markets/day — normal67% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
17.18
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)54.8%
Mid (20-55c)18.6%
High (>55c)26.7%

Sessions

#12
2/17/2026, 11:11:39 PM11 trades$26,3896 min
12/8/2025, 1:00:55 PM6 trades$17,8200 min
7/30/2025, 3:54:45 AM1 trades$14,6850 min
12/8/2025, 1:06:53 PM18 trades$13,13115 min
6/4/2026, 12:38:52 AM45 trades$11,81816 min
1/16/2026, 8:04:48 PM3 trades$10,8344 min
1/13/2026, 10:09:54 PM12 trades$10,76013 min
1/26/2026, 1:01:40 AM23 trades$9,41010 min
10/8/2025, 8:56:54 PM4 trades$9,3002 min
6/30/2025, 12:02:32 PM9 trades$9,0213 min
1/29/2026, 3:26:26 PM13 trades$8,99915 min
2/25/2026, 1:07:00 AM12 trades$8,9356 min
9/15/2025, 1:27:28 PM2 trades$8,9000 min
7/4/2025, 8:18:09 PM2 trades$8,8472 min
1/11/2026, 2:46:52 PM1 trades$8,6340 min
11/14/2025, 1:33:40 PM14 trades$8,47614 min
7/21/2025, 8:35:27 AM1 trades$7,9360 min
1/20/2026, 11:13:14 PM6 trades$7,9215 min
1/9/2026, 1:19:06 AM1 trades$7,8880 min
1/16/2026, 2:31:48 PM7 trades$7,8046 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-06
02-19
06-23
09-30
12-24
03-20
07-22

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 157 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
42% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 17.18/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L54.8 / M18.6 / H26.7