@tonight-punch-tiger

#3,039,02640

0x1b40f4f747b76d8e327c8f9a5890c5fc0341f533

~28d· 100 markets · 1209 tradesVol: $149,5232026-08-04 18:15:25
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

40
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

74% (74/100)20/20
0.57x (win $2,389 / loss $4,210)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -1.7410/15
Sortino -1.7540/10
$-0.0307 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 318 (100 markets)10/10
23/25 profitable days (92%)10/10
Max DD 185% of peak ($3,967 / $2,145)0/10

Badges

5
Sniper
Win rate 74%
DCA Master
Avg 12.1 entries/market
Whale
$59,314 invested
Consistent
23/25 profitable days
Win Streak
14 wins in a row

Categories

3
🌤️ WEATHER#299,121$-4,746Vol: $131,185
₿ CRYPTO#56,589$272Vol: $18,295
🎭 CULTURE#64,742$11Vol: $43

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-4,463
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$149,523
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
100
total markets
Trades
301B / 908S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~28d

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
74%
74W / 26L events
Realized PnL
$-4,463
Win Rate
74%
74W / 26L
Profit Factor
0.57x
Avg Win
$32
Avg Loss
$-200

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $725 (0.16234915599051805% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21?$293
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 27?$248
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14?$184
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$101
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19?$96
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 28?$93
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$85
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16?$84
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17?$71
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7?$67

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 7?$-3,967
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET$-54
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$-52
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET$-49
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15?$-20

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.089
Sortino
-72858.000
HHI
341
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.031
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
6.3%
Top-5 markets
28.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
5.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.4
Active Hours
20/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.9h
between trades
Night Trading
12%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.84
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
16.0

Bot Detection

#6
5
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 125s — normal for humanCV 1.84 — diverse sizes (human-like)12% night trades — normal pattern20/24 hours — extended activity5 trades/day — normal0.4 markets/day — normal25% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
12.09
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)6%
Mid (20-55c)8.6%
High (>55c)85.4%

Sessions

#12
6/17/2026, 6:22:40 AM29 trades$4,5296 min
6/16/2026, 8:39:10 PM17 trades$4,3883 min
6/18/2026, 6:42:29 PM20 trades$3,5106 min
6/27/2026, 9:13:07 PM33 trades$3,4242 min
6/23/2026, 8:55:08 AM15 trades$2,5350 min
6/29/2026, 12:56:23 AM5 trades$2,1510 min
6/26/2026, 6:38:26 AM18 trades$2,1484 min
6/21/2026, 12:13:35 AM9 trades$2,1281 min
6/9/2026, 4:44:43 PM12 trades$2,0341 min
6/13/2026, 8:37:00 AM8 trades$1,9210 min
6/19/2026, 5:33:23 PM8 trades$1,8320 min
6/7/2026, 6:26:04 PM15 trades$1,7800 min
6/13/2026, 8:45:24 AM14 trades$1,70111 min
6/15/2026, 6:43:54 PM20 trades$1,7013 min
6/17/2026, 7:06:25 PM28 trades$1,5743 min
6/10/2026, 9:45:19 PM19 trades$1,5460 min
6/8/2026, 1:59:40 AM20 trades$1,4321 min
6/7/2026, 8:45:54 AM16 trades$1,3791 min
7/6/2026, 10:33:49 PM5 trades$1,2280 min
6/20/2026, 9:38:23 AM6 trades$1,2030 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-27
06-08
06-13
06-17
06-21
06-27
07-06

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 2 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
56% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
75.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 12.09/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L6 / M8.6 / H85.4