Polydata
Concrete-Caramel

@Concrete-Caramel

#3,49369

0x1f66796b45581868376365aef54b51eb84184c8d

112d· 2211 markets · 14691 tradesVol: $5,780,996 @Mask4che2026-05-01T14:14
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

69
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 16%0/20
Profit Factor 1.87x13/15
Sharpe 0.3997/15
Sortino 1.19910/10
EV $+0.91410/10
HHI 5210/10
Profit Days 61%8/10
DD/Peak 3%10/10

Summary

Concrete-Caramel is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranking #3493 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $38,619.75. Over 356 days, they executed 14,691 trades across 1,263 markets, accumulating a total volume of nearly $5.8 million. Their portfolio value stands at $162.10, supported by a solid win rate of 78.7% and a profit factor of 3.28, indicating consistent profitability. The trader maintains a stable equity trend with a Sharpe ratio of 0.40 and has experienced no significant drawdown durations.

This trader’s strategy on Polymarket heavily favors weather-related markets, which compose 94% of their activity. Concrete-Caramel appears to employ an automated trading approach, as reflected in their high bot score of 80/100, and their style includes elements of dollar-cost averaging (DCA) and contrarian bets. Their risk profile is moderate, characterized by a low sell percentage of 12%, suggesting a preference for holding positions rather than frequent profit-taking. Timing is steady and methodical rather than speculative, with a focus on consistent returns over rapid gains.

Concrete-Caramel’s strengths lie in their disciplined, data-driven approach to a niche market segment, leveraging automation for efficiency and maintaining a strong win rate. However, the concentration in weather markets and a relatively low portfolio value could pose risks if market conditions shift or volatility increases. Additionally, the moderate Sharpe ratio indicates room for improvement in risk-adjusted returns. Overall, Concrete-Caramel demonstrates a robust trading style with both notable advantages and areas that warrant attention.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

10
Profitable
PnL $+38,620
Lottery Player
81% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
95% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 10.3 entries/market
Weather Pro
94% weather
Bot
Score 80/100
Win Streak
9 wins in a row
Whale
$131,660
Consistent
71/116 days
Cool Head
DD 3%

Categories

9
🌤️ WEATHER#20$47,783Vol: $4,809,339
🏛️ POLITICS#1,509,211$-3,939Vol: $569,670
📈 ECONOMICS#628,828$-3,642Vol: $193,174
💰 FINANCE#586,218$-1,436Vol: $84,735
🎭 CULTURE#685,647$-28Vol: $83,648
SPORTS#91,962$129Vol: $30,408
💻 TECH#214,370$-50Vol: $5,000
📢 MENTIONS#148,675$-212Vol: $4,298
CRYPTO#178,806$15Vol: $724

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$38,620
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$5,780,996
Total Redeem
$7,116
Portfolio
$162
Predictions
2211
total markets
Trades
12909B / 1782S
Daily Volume
$370
Account Age
112d
since Jan 8, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$601
Vol: $9,426
Week
$225
Vol: $174,506
Month
$601
Vol: $9,426
All Time
$38,620
Vol: $5,780,996

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
29%
199W / 486L events
Realized PnL
$168,046
Win Rate
79%
59W / 16L
Profit Factor
3.28x
Avg Win
$370
Avg Loss
$-416

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $9,575 (63.1% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 17?$3,932
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April $3,462
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 21?$2,181
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F $1,977
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on Marc$1,361
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or higher on$1,240
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 6?$612
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on March 30?$543
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on May 1?$539
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April $532

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April $-1,584
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 9?$-1,273
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April $-1,216
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F $-594
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 25?$-347
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 23?$-265
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April $-260
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April $-251
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F $-185
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 25?$-182

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.399
Sortino
1.199
HHI
52
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.914
Kelly %
71.9%
Half-Kelly
36.0%
Top-1 market
2.4%
Top-5 markets
10.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
130.8
Very active
Markets / Day
11.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
4:00 UTC
Median Gap
50s
between trades
Avg Gap
12.8m
between trades
Night Trading
37%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.37
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.3

Bot Detection

#6
80
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 50s — typical for humanSize CV 4.37 — diverse, typical for human36% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.11 — human randomness131 trades/day — automation11 markets/day — mass coverage1920 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 4:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
10.3
Heavy DCA
<=1
255 entries
<=2
386 entries
<=5
663 entries
<=10
880 entries
<=20
1085 entries
<=50
1227 entries
>50
28 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)81%
Mid (20-55c)15%
High (>55c)4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 73.2%

Seoul$8,032
New York City$1,818
Dallas$1,399
Buenos Aires$1,240
Wellington$550
Seattle$306
Tokyo$298
Miami$280
Atlanta$275
Paris$223
Ankara$217
London$182
Shanghai$147
Munich$72
Los Angeles$69
Chicago$43
Toronto$22
Other$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2
Events covered
623

Moderate coverage

<=1
280 brackets
<=2
458 brackets
<=3
546 brackets
<=4
592 brackets
<=5
608 brackets
<=8
622 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/8/2026, 11:33:52 PM1 trades$30 min
1/9/2026, 12:29:20 AM3 trades$01 min
1/9/2026, 12:44:48 AM1 trades$40 min
1/9/2026, 3:03:52 AM1 trades$00 min
1/9/2026, 3:12:26 AM1 trades$00 min
1/9/2026, 4:26:10 AM2 trades$231 min
1/9/2026, 4:55:12 AM1 trades$70 min
1/9/2026, 5:49:38 AM2 trades$01 min
1/9/2026, 5:56:54 AM31 trades$317 min
1/9/2026, 8:25:50 AM1 trades$00 min
1/9/2026, 9:37:06 AM1 trades$200 min
1/9/2026, 10:22:26 AM1 trades$40 min
1/9/2026, 12:05:50 PM1 trades$60 min
1/9/2026, 12:18:48 PM1 trades$80 min
1/9/2026, 1:42:04 PM2 trades$4083 min
1/9/2026, 1:57:58 PM2 trades$202 min
1/9/2026, 2:20:48 PM1 trades$350 min
1/9/2026, 4:14:36 PM2 trades$34 min
1/9/2026, 4:25:58 PM1 trades$10 min
1/9/2026, 6:34:54 PM1 trades$50 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
01-28
02-16
03-07
03-26
04-14
05-01
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
94.1% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
12.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 10.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2 br/event