@kelbros

#2,859,93312

0x23775b1ccd68ee5cc539c1d63507fd613813c69c

~15d· 58 markets · 447 tradesVol: $87,7392026-08-05 17:33:58
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

12
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

37% (15/41)3.3/20
0.20x (win $84 / loss $414)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -11.8660/15
Sortino -10.0800/10
$-0.2924 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 721 (41 markets)8.9/10
1/14 profitable days (7%)0/10
Max DD 122267% of peak ($330 / $0)0/10

Categories

5
🌤️ WEATHER#295,273$-452Vol: $82,980
🏛️ POLITICS#1,493,764$-71Vol: $3,270
📈 ECONOMICS#606,974$-12Vol: $938
⚽ SPORTS#447,811$1Vol: $529
₿ CRYPTO#580,207$0Vol: $22

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-534
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$87,739
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
58
total markets
Trades
225B / 222S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~15d

Periods

#2
Today
$-39
Vol: $654
Week
$-176
Vol: $39,684
Month
$-193
Vol: $39,706
All Time
$-534
Vol: $87,739

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
37%
15W / 26L events
Realized PnL
$-534
Win Rate
37%
15W / 26L
Profit Factor
0.2x
Avg Win
$6
Avg Loss
$-19

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $73 (0.13723471946700605% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 25?$57
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026?$11
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?$5
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?$2
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?$2
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 30?$1
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?$1
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 30?$1
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1

Top Losers

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?$-122
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 30?$-54
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026?$-54
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C or below on August 4?$-32
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by June 30?$-30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$-27
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?$-23
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?$-10
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 23?$-9
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 30?$-8

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.599
Sortino
-0.584
HHI
392
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.419
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
13.1%
Top-5 markets
36.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
9.3
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.2
Active Hours
21/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
8:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.1h
between trades
Night Trading
3%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.28
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
6.9

Bot Detection

#6
5
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 124s — normal for humanCV 1.28 — diverse sizes (human-like)3% night trades — normal pattern21/24 hours — extended activity9 trades/day — normal1.2 markets/day — normal50% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 8:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
7.76
Active DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)28.9%
Mid (20-55c)20.4%
High (>55c)50.7%

Sessions

#12
6/25/2026, 8:38:56 AM69 trades$5793 min
6/21/2026, 1:59:08 PM7 trades$2380 min
6/19/2026, 11:00:52 PM2 trades$1670 min
6/24/2026, 11:49:19 AM12 trades$1146 min
6/21/2026, 6:33:41 PM10 trades$995 min
7/30/2026, 8:09:24 AM6 trades$871 min
6/22/2026, 10:14:17 PM4 trades$720 min
6/20/2026, 2:34:44 PM2 trades$710 min
6/21/2026, 6:44:05 PM8 trades$694 min
6/28/2026, 3:56:02 PM2 trades$560 min
6/22/2026, 6:35:38 PM3 trades$532 min
6/24/2026, 11:37:07 AM2 trades$510 min
6/24/2026, 9:17:13 AM11 trades$510 min
7/26/2026, 10:04:00 PM8 trades$466 min
6/24/2026, 10:48:23 AM10 trades$460 min
6/24/2026, 9:23:20 AM8 trades$440 min
6/29/2026, 6:57:38 PM4 trades$381 min
6/20/2026, 11:02:32 AM2 trades$370 min
6/25/2026, 12:38:08 PM9 trades$341 min
6/29/2026, 6:42:14 PM20 trades$327 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
06-18
06-20
06-23
06-25
06-28
06-30
07-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 47 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
46.3% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
49.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 7.76/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L28.9 / M20.4 / H50.7