QuantDuck

@QuantDuck

#24,05927

0x2637aa568f566ed850650bb757d072c3055926e1

~80d· 143 markets · 2491 tradesVol: $522,9612026-08-04 19:09:47
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

27
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

50% (70/141)9.8/20
0.92x (win $66,375 / loss $72,018)1.5/15
Annualised Sharpe -0.4180/15
Sortino -0.4690/10
$-0.0376 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 282 (141 markets)10/10
32/61 profitable days (52%)5.6/10
Max DD 134% of peak ($30,631 / $22,937)0/10

Badges

6
Profitable
PnL $+5,323
DCA Master
Avg 23.1 entries/market
Whale
$150,111 invested
High Roller
$1,472/day
Win Streak
5 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

7
🏛️ POLITICS#7,971$3,547Vol: $374,017
SPORTS#38,817$972Vol: $62,344
CRYPTO#20,764$1,966Vol: $44,022
🎭 CULTURE#807,363$-606Vol: $28,312
💰 FINANCE#12,580$194Vol: $7,261
📈 ECONOMICS#679,327$-1,091Vol: $6,400
📢 MENTIONS#2,875$342Vol: $605

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$5,323
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$522,961
Total Redeem
$1,400
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
143
total markets
Trades
1476B / 1015S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~80d

Periods

#2
Today
$-39
Vol: $0
Week
$-26
Vol: $0
Month
$-91
Vol: $0
All Time
$5,323
Vol: $522,961

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
50%
70W / 70L events
Realized PnL
$5,323
Win Rate
50%
70W / 70L
Profit Factor
0.92x
Avg Win
$948
Avg Loss
$-1,014

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $22,236 (4.177248980404608% of PnL)

Top Winners

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$7,962
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?$7,750
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$6,524
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?$5,295
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?$4,865
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals$3,377
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?$2,827
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?$2,366
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$1,764
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?$1,723

Top Losers

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?$-9,015
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?$-7,064
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$-6,682
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$-5,122
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$-3,945
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?$-3,401
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14$-3,175
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?$-2,452
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$-2,334
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?$-1,820

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.022
Sortino
-0.018
HHI
413
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.027
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
9.2%
Top-5 markets
30.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
24.4
Active
Markets / Day
1.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.1h
between trades
Night Trading
2%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.29
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
9.9

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 149s — normal for humanCV 2.29 — diverse sizes (human-like)2% night trades — normal pattern24/24 hours — around the clock24 trades/day — high frequency1.4 markets/day — normal59% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
23.11
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)11.7%
Mid (20-55c)28%
High (>55c)60.3%

Sessions

#12
6/16/2026, 11:06:22 PM10 trades$10,3310 min
6/1/2026, 10:45:15 PM6 trades$10,0000 min
6/23/2026, 1:11:01 PM6 trades$8,0253 min
6/14/2026, 9:17:13 PM78 trades$6,85212 min
7/7/2026, 7:54:14 PM8 trades$4,9900 min
6/14/2026, 10:18:09 AM44 trades$4,7957 min
6/7/2026, 7:51:45 PM14 trades$4,0948 min
6/14/2026, 1:08:16 PM5 trades$3,8195 min
6/10/2026, 11:22:31 PM14 trades$3,7072 min
6/7/2026, 9:25:49 AM11 trades$3,7062 min
5/21/2026, 3:28:31 PM7 trades$3,4482 min
5/23/2026, 9:47:30 AM5 trades$2,9540 min
6/8/2026, 12:06:10 PM7 trades$2,6782 min
6/14/2026, 4:08:19 PM9 trades$2,5400 min
6/14/2026, 2:11:07 PM13 trades$2,5253 min
5/22/2026, 10:52:21 PM9 trades$2,4890 min
6/14/2026, 5:17:45 AM6 trades$2,4402 min
6/14/2026, 12:15:46 PM5 trades$2,3581 min
6/14/2026, 12:52:31 PM8 trades$2,2721 min
6/14/2026, 11:39:42 PM8 trades$2,1710 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-18
04-30
05-12
05-25
06-09
06-21
07-27

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 25 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
40.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 23.11/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L11.7 / M28 / H60.3