@serdarcaliskan

#2,922,90426

0x2be018ff9d1923281cdb15ef8f27e54e0147d48c

~60d· 110 markets · 277 tradesVol: $29,1582026-08-04 21:24:40
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

26
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

49% (53/108)9.5/20
0.59x (win $1,422 / loss $2,418)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -2.5460/15
Sortino -2.6650/10
$-0.1033 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 563 (108 markets)9.7/10
28/49 profitable days (57%)6.8/10
Max DD 374% of peak ($1,360 / $364)0/10

Badges

2
Win Streak
6 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

8
₿ CRYPTO#55,388$284Vol: $15,145
🎭 CULTURE#802,580$-361Vol: $10,529
💻 TECH#257,277$-895Vol: $2,897
🏛️ POLITICS#1,224,886$-8Vol: $231
⚽ SPORTS#1,237,568$-6Vol: $180
📈 ECONOMICS#63,533$4Vol: $165
💰 FINANCE#187,596$0Vol: $8
🌤️ WEATHER#152,854$0Vol: $2

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-980
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$29,158
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
110
total markets
Trades
164B / 113S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~60d

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$0
Vol: $0
Month
$0
Vol: $0
All Time
$-980
Vol: $29,158

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
49%
53W / 55L events
Realized PnL
$-980
Win Rate
49%
53W / 55L
Profit Factor
0.59x
Avg Win
$27
Avg Loss
$-97

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $836 (0.8528865579658389% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Bitcoin be between $96000 and $98000 on February 14?$445
Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10?$281
Will Ethereum hit $3000 by Friday?$110
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?$92
Solana all time high by January 31?$85
Ripple above $3.20 on January 24?$67
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 24-31?$55
Bitcoin all time high by January 31?$49
Will Ethereum hit $3000 by Wednesday?$47
Will Bitcoin hit $100k again in 2024?$42

Top Losers

Will Apple launch an iPhone SE on February 19?$-697
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 17-24?$-310
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Jan 17-24?$-308
Will Bitcoin be between $94000 and $96000 on February 14?$-243
Will Apple launch a MacBook on February 19?$-198
Will $TRUMP hit $25B FDV by Sunday?$-186
Will Bitcoin be between $98000 and $100000 on February 14?$-160
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 17-24?$-70
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?$-56
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?$-30

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.132
Sortino
-0.089
HHI
462
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.103
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
8.6%
Top-5 markets
36.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.5
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
3.7h
between trades
Night Trading
17%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.32
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.0

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 284s — normal for humanCV 2.32 — diverse sizes (human-like)17% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock0 trades/day — normal0.2 markets/day — normal37% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.68
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)7.3%
Mid (20-55c)26.2%
High (>55c)66.5%

Sessions

#12
2/6/2025, 2:39:39 PM2 trades$1,4401 min
2/5/2025, 4:41:30 PM2 trades$1,4081 min
2/15/2025, 8:38:39 PM6 trades$8959 min
2/7/2025, 2:03:54 PM1 trades$8300 min
2/12/2025, 7:37:50 PM25 trades$82916 min
1/22/2025, 7:33:05 AM2 trades$7502 min
2/4/2025, 8:48:21 PM1 trades$6570 min
1/31/2025, 10:49:22 AM1 trades$6010 min
1/31/2025, 7:38:54 AM1 trades$6010 min
1/27/2025, 4:59:53 AM1 trades$5520 min
1/29/2025, 7:43:40 PM1 trades$5520 min
1/24/2025, 2:23:57 AM2 trades$4721 min
1/25/2025, 8:14:05 AM2 trades$4681 min
1/24/2025, 4:06:45 AM1 trades$4000 min
1/23/2025, 10:39:27 AM1 trades$3250 min
1/14/2025, 2:09:37 PM1 trades$2870 min
1/18/2025, 7:51:21 AM1 trades$2790 min
1/15/2025, 1:42:47 AM4 trades$2581 min
1/17/2025, 2:18:49 PM1 trades$2180 min
2/14/2025, 3:02:35 PM1 trades$2000 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-02
01-07
01-19
02-07
05-28
06-05
06-21

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 524 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
40.8% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.68/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L7.3 / M26.2 / H66.5