@what-are-the-odds
#83,330710x2eb9d4ffd5182f034d37b1d5f15e02adff177459
~63d· 91 markets · 434 tradesVol: $49,7722026-08-04 23:35:00
SMART SCORE SYSTEM
Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.
Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.
71
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard
Score Components
33% (26/79)1.5/20
2.68x (win $3,089 / loss $1,152)15/15
Annualised Sharpe 4.96715/15
Sortino 14.82710/10
$+0.2974 per $1 invested10/10
HHI 1194 (79 markets)6.5/10
18/39 profitable days (46%)4/10
Max DD 23% of peak ($467 / $1,992)9.3/10
Badges
4Profitable
PnL $+965
Lottery Player
68% entries < $0.20
Cool Head
Max DD 23%
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
Categories
6🏛️ POLITICS#19,846$855Vol: $44,990
🎭 CULTURE#15,337$168Vol: $3,239
₿ CRYPTO#1,069,079$-6Vol: $804
📈 ECONOMICS#630,357$-22Vol: $406
📢 MENTIONS#140,522$-18Vol: $227
🌤️ WEATHER#229,082$-5Vol: $42
Overview
#1Net PnL
$965
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$49,772
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
91
total markets
Trades
204B / 230S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~63d
Periods
#2Today
$-1
Vol: $0
Week
$8
Vol: $0
Month
$-59
Vol: $3,089
All Time
$965
Vol: $49,772
PnL Analysis
#3Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology
Win Rate (events)
33%
26W / 53L events
Realized PnL
$965
Win Rate
33%
26W / 53L
Profit Factor
2.68x
Avg Win
$119
Avg Loss
$-22
Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,495 (1.5502140850327089% of PnL)
Top Winners
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?$524
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?$493
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?$479
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?$380
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?$253
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?$242
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?$209
US forces enter Iran by April 30?$183
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?$108
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?$103
Top Losers
Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?$-362
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$-156
Will MrBeast hit 479 million subscribers by April 30?$-105
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?$-61
US forces enter Iran by December 31?$-60
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?$-56
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?$-55
Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31?$-50
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$-26
Israel retaliates against Houthis before May?$-21
Risk Metrics
#4Sharpe
0.257
Sortino
0.632
HHI
1981
Moderate
EV per $1
$0.282
Kelly %
0.7%
Half-Kelly
0.3%
Top-1 market
33.3%
Top-5 markets
77.4%
Behavior Analysis
#5Trades / Day
0.6
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.7h
between trades
Night Trading
8%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.48
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
6.7
Bot Detection
#615
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability
7 indicators analyzed
Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 110s — normal for humanCV 2.48 — diverse sizes (human-like)8% night trades — normal pattern24/24 hours — around the clock1 trades/day — normal0.1 markets/day — normal21% maker — normal mix
Timing Patterns
#7Peak hour: 21:00 UTC
0
4
8
12
16
20
DCA Analysis
#8Avg entries/market
4.03
Price Levels
#9Low (<20c)68.1%
Mid (20-55c)24%
High (>55c)7.8%
Sessions
#126/16/2026, 7:30:17 PM37 trades$2,48916 min
4/3/2026, 2:13:43 PM14 trades$2,0571 min
6/17/2026, 5:40:28 PM4 trades$2,0001 min
4/19/2026, 12:33:50 PM19 trades$1,3800 min
4/5/2026, 11:15:01 AM4 trades$1,2372 min
4/6/2026, 6:10:43 PM8 trades$1,2234 min
3/30/2026, 5:59:09 PM2 trades$1,0700 min
7/23/2026, 12:34:52 PM4 trades$9790 min
4/22/2026, 9:05:52 PM21 trades$7720 min
2/28/2026, 7:31:15 PM2 trades$6451 min
6/5/2026, 9:18:45 AM7 trades$6252 min
8/1/2026, 9:15:30 PM22 trades$4957 min
5/1/2026, 7:35:26 AM24 trades$4480 min
6/17/2026, 2:38:19 PM10 trades$4273 min
4/14/2026, 2:32:57 PM4 trades$3700 min
6/28/2026, 1:20:22 AM9 trades$3470 min
4/3/2026, 2:51:29 PM2 trades$3000 min
4/8/2026, 10:43:53 PM3 trades$2650 min
4/12/2026, 1:06:55 PM7 trades$2581 min
5/29/2026, 11:25:09 AM2 trades$2500 min
Equity Curve
#13Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
07-29
10-17
12-23
03-19
03-01
04-12
06-16
Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)
Max drawdown: 11 days (recovered)
Profile
#14Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
53% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.03/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L68.1 / M24 / H7.8