@Weatherweather

#2,884,88912

0x302ce23e13afa428493774c94c871cedb07fabce

~17d· 25 markets · 1067 tradesVol: $346,4132026-08-04 17:18:02
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

12
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

28% (7/25)0/20
0.98x (win $5,598 / loss $5,684)2.3/15
Annualised Sharpe -0.2000/15
Sortino -0.2870/10
$-0.0094 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 782 (25 markets)8.6/10
5/14 profitable days (36%)1.4/10
Max DD 139% of peak ($1,484 / $1,067)0/10

Badges

1
Lottery Player
31% entries < $0.20

Categories

2
🌤️ WEATHER#295,815$-573Vol: $346,173
⚽ SPORTS#1,678,181$-100Vol: $240

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-673
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$346,413
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
25
total markets
Trades
300B / 767S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~17d

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
28%
7W / 18L events
Realized PnL
$-673
Win Rate
28%
7W / 18L
Profit Factor
0.98x
Avg Win
$800
Avg Loss
$-334

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $3,778 (5.614896494330594% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 27?$1,640
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25?$1,383
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21?$756
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 28?$666
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 28?$569
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20?$498
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 24?$86

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 28?$-1,421
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27?$-1,131
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23?$-1,069
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 28?$-528
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 20?$-442
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21?$-272
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 28?$-188
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 22?$-143
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 27?$-105
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 27?$-101

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.010
Sortino
-0.015
HHI
933
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.009
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
20.4%
Top-5 markets
58.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
16.7
Active
Markets / Day
0.4
Active Hours
20/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
7:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
55.6m
between trades
Night Trading
4%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.01
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
16.3

Bot Detection

#6
10
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 116s — normal for humanCV 2.01 — diverse sizes (human-like)4% night trades — normal pattern20/24 hours — extended activity17 trades/day — very active0.4 markets/day — normal28% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 7:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
42.76
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)30.7%
Mid (20-55c)19.7%
High (>55c)49.7%

Sessions

#12
6/27/2026, 7:35:50 AM118 trades$3,62826 min
6/27/2026, 11:45:59 PM20 trades$1,5367 min
6/25/2026, 5:16:17 PM24 trades$1,3384 min
6/26/2026, 9:35:19 PM35 trades$1,22610 min
6/20/2026, 5:03:07 PM33 trades$1,0368 min
6/24/2026, 10:19:28 PM18 trades$9000 min
6/27/2026, 3:48:47 PM9 trades$8853 min
7/27/2026, 12:23:10 AM34 trades$7903 min
7/19/2026, 11:58:34 PM16 trades$6750 min
6/25/2026, 9:07:01 AM21 trades$5476 min
6/27/2026, 2:53:59 PM28 trades$5238 min
6/26/2026, 9:04:22 PM11 trades$4890 min
6/21/2026, 11:38:34 AM48 trades$45322 min
6/27/2026, 1:35:07 PM6 trades$4500 min
6/20/2026, 4:56:05 PM15 trades$3951 min
6/22/2026, 9:10:37 PM22 trades$3907 min
6/27/2026, 3:32:53 PM6 trades$3140 min
6/23/2026, 1:02:23 PM14 trades$2970 min
6/25/2026, 8:51:10 PM27 trades$2935 min
6/27/2026, 12:12:26 PM13 trades$2680 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
05-28
06-21
06-23
06-25
06-28
07-18
07-28

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 24 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
96% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
71.9% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 42.76/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L30.7 / M19.7 / H49.7