tollio

@tollio

#2,625,92528

0x3b917602cc586c1595625931c38889c357806f8e

~163d· 265 markets · 309 tradesVol: $103,401 @jennajay672026-08-04 23:12:49
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

28
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

52% (137/263)11/20
0.89x (win $1,563 / loss $1,749)1.2/15
Annualised Sharpe -0.8550/15
Sortino -1.1260/10
$-0.0569 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 80 (263 markets)10/10
86/161 profitable days (53%)5.9/10
Max DD 213% of peak ($439 / $206)0/10

Badges

2
Win Streak
6 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
23/24 hours active

Categories

6
⚽ SPORTS#1,675,262$-99Vol: $57,568
🏛️ POLITICS#1,371,827$-19Vol: $31,154
📈 ECONOMICS#609,560$-13Vol: $13,000
🎭 CULTURE#560,747$-2Vol: $1,638
₿ CRYPTO#647,447$0Vol: $11
💰 FINANCE#259,520$0Vol: $4

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-131
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$103,401
Total Redeem
$50
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
265
total markets
Trades
271B / 38S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~163d

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$0
Vol: $0
Month
$0
Vol: $0
All Time
$-131
Vol: $103,401

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
52%
137W / 126L events
Realized PnL
$-131
Win Rate
52%
137W / 126L
Profit Factor
0.89x
Avg Win
$11
Avg Loss
$-15

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $299 (2.278789726392805% of PnL)

Top Winners

Wizards vs. Pistons$125
Rockets vs. Kings$107
Kings vs. Clippers$67
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies$57
Hornets vs. Heat$57
Spurs vs. Nuggets$56
Nuggets vs. Celtics$55
Mavericks vs. Magic$49
Lakers vs. Bulls$49
Raptors vs. Jazz$47

Top Losers

Suns vs. Heat$-100
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks$-65
Nuggets vs. Thunder$-64
Timberwolves vs. Nets$-50
Warriors vs. Pelicans$-50
Raptors vs. Hornets$-45
Raptors vs. Trail Blazers$-44
Cavaliers vs. Hornets$-41
Lakers vs. Thunder$-41
Pacers vs. Thunder$-40

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.045
Sortino
-0.045
HHI
82
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.057
Kelly %
5.5%
Half-Kelly
2.8%
Top-1 market
3.1%
Top-5 markets
10.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.6
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.5
Active Hours
23/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
23:00 UTC
Median Gap
57.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
8.1h
between trades
Night Trading
10%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.10
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.4

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 3462s — normal for humanCV 1.10 — diverse sizes (human-like)10% night trades — normal pattern23/24 hours — around the clock1 trades/day — normal0.5 markets/day — normal13% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 23:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.18
Single entry

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)12.5%
Mid (20-55c)37.3%
High (>55c)50.2%

Sessions

#12
3/14/2025, 5:12:09 PM4 trades$1544 min
1/13/2026, 11:58:44 PM3 trades$1401 min
3/9/2026, 11:37:39 PM3 trades$972 min
3/19/2025, 11:40:41 PM6 trades$856 min
3/21/2025, 5:04:17 PM4 trades$802 min
3/10/2025, 11:58:57 AM6 trades$763 min
3/12/2025, 11:28:15 PM5 trades$702 min
1/7/2026, 9:53:23 PM3 trades$683 min
1/29/2026, 2:03:28 AM1 trades$650 min
4/3/2025, 10:05:42 PM2 trades$651 min
3/16/2025, 8:13:59 PM2 trades$600 min
3/20/2025, 10:38:39 PM4 trades$601 min
3/28/2025, 5:03:52 PM2 trades$602 min
3/29/2025, 8:47:51 PM2 trades$602 min
3/9/2025, 9:28:41 AM2 trades$591 min
1/9/2026, 11:09:16 PM2 trades$570 min
3/29/2025, 9:26:08 PM2 trades$531 min
3/5/2025, 11:05:27 PM1 trades$500 min
3/6/2025, 9:06:21 PM1 trades$500 min
3/17/2025, 8:52:11 PM2 trades$501 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-01
03-31
11-24
01-10
02-19
03-26
06-16

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 363 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
12.3% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.18/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L12.5 / M37.3 / H50.2