informed

@informed

#7,305100

0x40e3181c4e82c30ee0011a7264f31edc69402433

~65d· 88 markets · 1473 tradesVol: $589,5202026-08-04 18:14:01
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

100
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

78% (67/86)20/20
9.49x (win $18,755 / loss $1,977)15/15
Annualised Sharpe 8.35015/15
Sortino 82.73510/10
$+0.2491 per $1 invested10/10
HHI 378 (86 markets)10/10
35/42 profitable days (83%)10/10
Max DD 4% of peak ($739 / $16,778)10/10

Badges

9
Sniper
Win rate 78%
Profitable
PnL $+21,634
Lottery Player
43% entries < $0.20
DCA Master
Avg 16.7 entries/market
Whale
$67,361 invested
Consistent
35/42 profitable days
Cool Head
Max DD 4%
Win Streak
18 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

8
CRYPTO#2,904$15,967Vol: $288,280
🌤️ WEATHER#1,018$1,809Vol: $98,980
📈 ECONOMICS#676,903$-604Vol: $84,911
🏛️ POLITICS#1,588,468$-383Vol: $63,106
📢 MENTIONS#171,782$-339Vol: $30,481
💰 FINANCE#1,431$3,630Vol: $10,553
SPORTS#71,662$307Vol: $5,827
🎭 CULTURE#13,304$216Vol: $4,188

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$21,634
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$589,520
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
88
total markets
Trades
705B / 768S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~65d

Periods

#2
Today
$394
Vol: $6,770
Week
$488
Vol: $20,694
Month
$1,152
Vol: $30,854
All Time
$21,634
Vol: $589,520

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
78%
67W / 19L events
Realized PnL
$21,634
Win Rate
78%
67W / 19L
Profit Factor
9.49x
Avg Win
$280
Avg Loss
$-110

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $8,561 (0.39570035614659094% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30?$3,419
Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy$3,376
Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?$1,766
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?$1,693
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?$1,556
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?$1,222
Will the HBO documentary identify David Kleiman as Satoshi?$838
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024?$500
Will the HBO documentary identify Shinichi Mochizuki as Satoshi?$475
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Rio 2024?$452

Top Losers

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?$-421
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?$-201
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024?$-195
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet?$-154
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Pennsylvania rally on October 9?$-153
Will Trump say "tampon" during Pennsylvania rally on October 9?$-140
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by October 31?$-125
Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024?$-120
Will Butterfly win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?$-102
Will Team Vitality win IEM Rio 2024?$-88

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.432
Sortino
3.674
HHI
298
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.262
Kelly %
52.1%
Half-Kelly
26.0%
Top-1 market
8%
Top-5 markets
30%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2.2
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
12:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
38.3m
between trades
Night Trading
12%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.46
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
6.2

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 98s — normal for humanCV 2.46 — diverse sizes (human-like)12% night trades — normal pattern24/24 hours — around the clock2 trades/day — normal0.1 markets/day — normal65% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 12:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
16.72
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)42.8%
Mid (20-55c)17.3%
High (>55c)39.9%

Sessions

#12
2/10/2025, 12:48:46 PM2 trades$4,8440 min
10/8/2024, 12:39:31 PM4 trades$4,4853 min
10/15/2024, 3:58:42 PM2 trades$3,9380 min
10/10/2024, 12:26:39 PM1 trades$2,8000 min
10/7/2024, 7:41:59 PM3 trades$2,5620 min
4/21/2025, 12:09:04 PM1 trades$2,4600 min
3/16/2026, 9:44:45 PM20 trades$2,41312 min
10/10/2024, 12:59:25 PM3 trades$2,3671 min
10/7/2024, 12:51:55 PM2 trades$2,3201 min
7/30/2026, 7:35:03 PM33 trades$2,2901 min
10/7/2024, 6:16:29 PM5 trades$2,2800 min
6/1/2025, 12:42:55 PM5 trades$2,2492 min
11/2/2024, 12:29:10 AM1 trades$2,1730 min
7/16/2026, 12:51:05 PM15 trades$2,1690 min
11/17/2025, 1:25:37 PM2 trades$2,1142 min
7/7/2026, 12:21:04 PM22 trades$2,1005 min
7/6/2026, 7:55:20 PM4 trades$2,0970 min
2/9/2025, 12:34:07 PM1 trades$1,9920 min
11/17/2025, 1:11:29 PM1 trades$1,9400 min
10/19/2024, 1:31:46 PM1 trades$1,7940 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
10-03
10-13
01-26
03-16
07-11
07-27

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 83 days (recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
8% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
52.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 16.72/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L42.8 / M17.3 / H39.9