Jiraiya.will.be.fine

@Jiraiya.will.be.fine

#3,020,12322

0x422962f9d57380856d9670884df2f2f84ed9c131

~64d· 234 markets · 1368 tradesVol: $1,085,4902026-08-05 00:40:05
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

22
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

49% (107/219)9.4/20
0.41x (win $2,278 / loss $5,528)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -4.8820/15
Sortino -5.2170/10
$-0.1688 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 192 (219 markets)10/10
19/45 profitable days (42%)3.1/10
Max DD 0% of peak ($3,361 / $0)0/10

Badges

5
Lottery Player
74% entries < $0.20
DCA Master
Avg 5.8 entries/market
Win Streak
11 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
🏗️Market Maker
73% maker orders

Categories

8
₿ CRYPTO#1,593,050$-526Vol: $866,840
🏛️ POLITICS#1,610,612$-864Vol: $90,622
🎭 CULTURE#777,707$-90Vol: $37,671
⚽ SPORTS#1,826,506$-991Vol: $30,852
📈 ECONOMICS#20,666$39Vol: $24,891
🌤️ WEATHER#292,056$-239Vol: $19,948
📢 MENTIONS#151,473$-34Vol: $2,990
💰 FINANCE#23,501$61Vol: $1,063

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-2,826
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,085,490
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
234
total markets
Trades
929B / 439S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~64d

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Month
$0
Vol: $0
All Time
$-2,826
Vol: $1,085,490

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
49%
107W / 112L events
Realized PnL
$-2,826
Win Rate
49%
107W / 112L
Profit Factor
0.41x
Avg Win
$21
Avg Loss
$-51

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $937 (0.3315699519817693% of PnL)

Top Winners

Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?$405
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale?$338
Lighter Airdrop on December 31?$194
Will Donald Trump say "two weeks" during Ukraine President events on December 28?$96
Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale?$92
Over $45M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?$73
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?$68
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 14?$61
Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?$60
Will the US strike Syria next?$54

Top Losers

Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in over 2 hours and 30 minutes?$-972
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by January 31?$-913
Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last 6–10 seconds?$-531
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?$-500
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 2 hours and 15 minutes and 2 hours and 30 minutes?$-265
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 28?$-211
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 2 hours and 2 hours and 15 minutes?$-204
Over $2M committed to the Trove public sale?$-170
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 22?$-142
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?$-102

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.253
Sortino
-0.238
HHI
172
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.179
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
5.3%
Top-5 markets
20.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
6.6
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
4:00 UTC
Median Gap
5.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
59.6m
between trades
Night Trading
43%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.82
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.0

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
MEDIUM
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 316s — normal for humanCV 2.82 — diverse sizes (human-like)43% night trades — never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clock7 trades/day — normal1.1 markets/day — normal73% maker — frequent liquidity provider

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 4:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
5.79
Active DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)74.1%
Mid (20-55c)8.4%
High (>55c)17.5%

Sessions

#12
7/1/2026, 10:59:50 PM18 trades$9182 min
12/25/2025, 8:29:01 PM3 trades$7764 min
12/28/2025, 6:26:19 PM7 trades$74114 min
12/31/2025, 9:13:59 PM1 trades$7170 min
1/10/2026, 2:59:20 AM1 trades$5490 min
1/10/2026, 3:52:42 AM1 trades$5490 min
12/25/2025, 5:38:47 AM3 trades$5103 min
1/2/2026, 6:10:25 AM1 trades$5000 min
1/13/2026, 12:23:07 AM2 trades$4541 min
1/10/2026, 9:08:14 AM1 trades$4420 min
1/10/2026, 7:32:02 AM11 trades$4309 min
1/2/2026, 1:09:27 AM1 trades$4000 min
1/14/2026, 2:41:28 AM2 trades$3792 min
1/14/2026, 1:25:12 AM1 trades$3780 min
1/7/2026, 12:02:09 AM2 trades$3660 min
1/13/2026, 2:53:07 PM1 trades$3630 min
1/12/2026, 2:44:50 AM1 trades$3480 min
12/28/2025, 6:58:47 PM1 trades$3430 min
1/20/2026, 8:10:52 AM1 trades$3140 min
1/20/2026, 5:05:50 PM2 trades$3132 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-28
01-05
01-13
01-20
01-27
02-04
03-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
20% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
32.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 5.79/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L74.1 / M8.4 / H17.5