@moonrise-clump

#1,354,82638

0x48c4eb13fe07ea639df857bc82258ef5a47219e5

~105d· 980 markets · 1733 tradesVol: $6,9062026-08-04 21:39:22
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

38
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

69% (552/798)19.6/20
0.97x (win $617 / loss $634)2.2/15
Annualised Sharpe -0.2550/15
Sortino -0.3640/10
$-0.0048 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 43 (798 markets)10/10
54/96 profitable days (56%)6.6/10
Max DD 119% of peak ($103 / $86)0/10

Badges

3
Sniper
Win rate 69%
Win Streak
15 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
22/24 hours active

Categories

9
💰 FINANCE#22,895$64Vol: $2,762
🏛️ POLITICS#1,475,339$-56Vol: $2,425
💻 TECH#31,558$3Vol: $376
₿ CRYPTO#329,344$3Vol: $349
📈 ECONOMICS#50,624$7Vol: $347
🌤️ WEATHER#196,513$-1Vol: $240
📢 MENTIONS#146,158$-24Vol: $160
🎭 CULTURE#105,361$3Vol: $157
⚽ SPORTS#432,372$1Vol: $64

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-1
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$6,906
Total Redeem
$171
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
980
total markets
Trades
1238B / 495S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~105d

Periods

#2
Today
$-20
Vol: $48
Week
$-20
Vol: $48
Month
$-21
Vol: $108
All Time
$-1
Vol: $6,906

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
69%
551W / 246L events
Realized PnL
$-1
Win Rate
69%
551W / 246L
Profit Factor
0.97x
Avg Win
$1
Avg Loss
$-3

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $96 (66.04827586206896% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$53
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?$22
Will Claude go down 12+ times in April?$20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$17
Will Claude go down 11+ times in March?$15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$14
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?$13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$13
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? $11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$10

Top Losers

Will Claude go down 12+ times in July?$-60
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?$-40
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?$-26
Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?$-23
Will Trump say "Trump Tower" in May?$-20
US bank failure by January 31?$-15
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$-12
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$-12
Will Trump say "Pig" in May?$-10
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?$-10

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.013
Sortino
-0.016
HHI
32
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.005
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
1.8%
Top-5 markets
7.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
9.0
Moderate
Markets / Day
5.1
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
32s
between trades
Avg Gap
57.7m
between trades
Night Trading
36%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.15
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
8 min
Avg Trades / Session
18.9

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 32s — normal for humanCV 1.15 — diverse sizes (human-like)36% night trades — never sleeps22/24 hours — around the clock9 trades/day — normal5.1 markets/day — normal28% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.89
Single entry

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)5.9%
Mid (20-55c)14.1%
High (>55c)80%

Sessions

#12
5/5/2026, 3:39:38 PM78 trades$20020 min
7/12/2026, 8:35:08 PM40 trades$16222 min
6/7/2026, 8:08:49 PM61 trades$12627 min
4/12/2026, 2:23:23 AM18 trades$1033 min
6/27/2026, 8:05:26 PM26 trades$9719 min
7/24/2026, 7:02:06 AM29 trades$9115 min
4/3/2026, 1:39:51 AM42 trades$9011 min
4/8/2026, 2:50:57 AM11 trades$881 min
1/25/2026, 5:59:06 AM18 trades$8620 min
3/26/2026, 6:48:19 PM21 trades$8211 min
6/14/2026, 3:45:24 AM32 trades$779 min
5/16/2026, 5:12:37 PM36 trades$6910 min
6/9/2026, 11:45:57 PM20 trades$663 min
4/21/2026, 5:05:46 AM19 trades$636 min
3/25/2026, 8:56:47 PM6 trades$603 min
6/13/2026, 6:37:09 PM30 trades$5815 min
6/4/2026, 8:23:12 PM16 trades$574 min
2/14/2026, 7:57:01 PM19 trades$5614 min
2/15/2026, 11:04:15 AM22 trades$5415 min
4/23/2026, 8:51:48 PM14 trades$517 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-25
02-21
03-13
04-03
04-28
06-12

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 97 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
28.6% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.89/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L5.9 / M14.1 / H80