@UtopianCapitalist

#2,954,9318

0x4d2f905124bc371eb577560bbf65021a48d945b9

~38d· 40 markets · 88 tradesVol: $40,7052026-08-04 22:03:14
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

8
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

44% (15/34)7.1/20
0.34x (win $643 / loss $1,891)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -3.4760/15
Sortino -3.5700/10
$-0.4804 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 3921 (34 markets)0/10
7/21 profitable days (33%)0.8/10
Max DD 135298% of peak ($1,610 / $1)0/10

Badges

2
Lottery Player
40% entries < $0.20
Win Streak
5 wins in a row

Categories

3
🏛️ POLITICS#1,621,833$-1,514Vol: $33,780
📈 ECONOMICS#5,865$353Vol: $6,198
💰 FINANCE#636,072$-122Vol: $726

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-1,283
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$40,705
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
40
total markets
Trades
72B / 16S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~38d

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$0
Vol: $191
Month
$-0
Vol: $191
All Time
$-1,283
Vol: $40,705

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
44%
15W / 19L events
Realized PnL
$-1,283
Win Rate
44%
15W / 19L
Profit Factor
0.34x
Avg Win
$43
Avg Loss
$-100

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $503 (0.39229929851909584% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will annual inflation increase by between 30% and 32.9% in December?$374
Will monthly inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9% in December?$91
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1440.00 and 1459.99 at the end of January 2026?$39
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in February 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%?$33
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1450.00 and 1474.99 on December 31 2025?$32
Will annual inflation increase by between 27% and 29.9% in December?$22
Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in November?$21
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1420.00 and 1439.99 at the end of January 2026?$12
Will monthly inflation be between 2.1% and 2.3% in October?$6
Will monthly inflation be between 2.1% and 2.3% in December?$5

Top Losers

Milei out as President of Argentina in 2025?$-1,447
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1500.00 or higher on December 31 2025?$-146
Will UP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?$-65
Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in December?$-30
Will monthly inflation be between 2.1% and 2.3% in November?$-30
Will annual inflation increase by 39% or higher in December?$-23
Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in September?$-20
Will monthly inflation be between 2.3% and 2.5% in January?$-20
Will monthly inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9% in September?$-20
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1460.00 and 1479.99 at the end of January 2026?$-15

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.178
Sortino
-0.156
HHI
3845
Concentrated
EV per $1
$-0.488
Kelly %
12.5%
Half-Kelly
6.2%
Top-1 market
61.1%
Top-5 markets
78.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.3
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
17/24
Extended
Peak Hour
23:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
3.3h
between trades
Night Trading
8%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.35
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.6

Bot Detection

#6
0
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 120s — normal for humanCV 1.35 — diverse sizes (human-like)8% night trades — normal pattern17/24 hours — normal schedule0 trades/day — normal0.1 markets/day — normal7% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 23:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.09
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)40.3%
Mid (20-55c)37.5%
High (>55c)22.2%

Sessions

#12
10/2/2025, 9:27:55 AM3 trades$3002 min
10/7/2025, 9:29:42 AM3 trades$2304 min
9/22/2025, 10:08:58 AM1 trades$2000 min
9/23/2025, 11:31:34 AM1 trades$2000 min
10/3/2025, 10:58:43 AM1 trades$2000 min
9/22/2025, 10:47:34 PM1 trades$1000 min
10/3/2025, 4:54:39 AM1 trades$1000 min
11/29/2025, 11:01:19 AM1 trades$1000 min
11/12/2025, 7:11:10 PM2 trades$911 min
11/29/2025, 11:29:23 AM3 trades$904 min
9/24/2025, 8:59:00 AM1 trades$900 min
10/28/2025, 11:31:57 PM1 trades$890 min
11/29/2025, 11:06:51 AM2 trades$801 min
10/27/2025, 9:19:55 AM1 trades$780 min
9/19/2025, 2:37:56 PM2 trades$700 min
10/3/2025, 5:54:53 PM3 trades$652 min
9/21/2025, 10:36:18 AM1 trades$580 min
12/19/2025, 8:27:03 PM1 trades$570 min
9/19/2025, 11:32:20 PM1 trades$500 min
10/3/2025, 6:04:07 PM1 trades$500 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
09-19
10-24
11-08
12-01
12-19
01-23
02-06

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 54 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
18.2% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.09/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L40.3 / M37.5 / H22.2