Lionel-Musk

@Lionel-Musk

#3,004,2612

0x4e648029f9bfe436525da1760d52a2f146c066f1

~26d· 83 markets · 849 tradesVol: $1,110,0282026-08-04 20:40:35
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

2
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

19% (15/79)0/20
0.30x (win $36,504 / loss $121,662)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -4.8150/15
Sortino -4.8520/10
$-0.5064 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 2060 (79 markets)2.2/10
5/19 profitable days (26%)0/10
Max DD 402% of peak ($113,336 / $28,177)0/10

Badges

3
Lottery Player
45% entries < $0.20
Whale
$168,178 invested
🦉Night Owl
23/24 hours active

Categories

7
⚽ SPORTS#66,945$349Vol: $993,256
₿ CRYPTO#1,655,520$-2,461Vol: $39,003
🎭 CULTURE#770,926$-69Vol: $6,445
📈 ECONOMICS#577,155$-6Vol: $3,690
🏛️ POLITICS#1,450,781$-43Vol: $2,763
💰 FINANCE#21,664$72Vol: $1,799
💻 TECH#242,560$-41Vol: $1,323

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-2,216
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,110,028
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
83
total markets
Trades
284B / 565S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~26d

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
19%
15W / 64L events
Realized PnL
$-2,216
Win Rate
19%
15W / 64L
Profit Factor
0.3x
Avg Win
$2,434
Avg Loss
$-1,994

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $28,461 (12.841313312699087% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?$10,082
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?$9,844
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?$8,535
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?$4,125
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?$1,452
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?$890
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?$867
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?$284
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?$211
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?$98

Top Losers

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-64,255
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?$-41,925
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-2,765
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti?$-1,993
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti?$-1,990
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$-1,569
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime?$-831
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?$-800
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil?$-684
Cabo Verde leading at halftime?$-672

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.245
Sortino
-0.223
HHI
3634
Concentrated
EV per $1
$-0.359
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
47.7%
Top-5 markets
113.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
4.3
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.4
Active Hours
23/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
22:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.2h
between trades
Night Trading
33%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.60
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
12.7

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 124s — normal for humanCV 2.60 — diverse sizes (human-like)33% night trades — never sleeps23/24 hours — around the clock4 trades/day — normal0.4 markets/day — normal24% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 22:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
15.48
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)44.7%
Mid (20-55c)24.6%
High (>55c)30.6%

Sessions

#12
6/21/2026, 6:00:50 AM2 trades$30,7330 min
6/23/2026, 11:24:34 AM64 trades$25,0240 min
7/3/2026, 11:19:22 PM34 trades$18,7791 min
6/24/2026, 10:07:38 PM57 trades$15,5695 min
6/20/2026, 11:45:29 PM5 trades$14,6074 min
6/24/2026, 6:15:31 AM9 trades$12,5000 min
7/3/2026, 10:40:32 PM10 trades$12,4811 min
6/23/2026, 11:02:31 AM13 trades$11,7140 min
7/4/2026, 12:17:59 AM18 trades$11,6240 min
6/20/2026, 5:17:01 PM15 trades$11,2055 min
6/22/2026, 10:45:38 AM2 trades$10,2940 min
7/4/2026, 6:26:23 AM6 trades$10,1440 min
7/4/2026, 12:06:01 AM44 trades$9,7852 min
7/4/2026, 12:32:01 AM10 trades$8,7660 min
6/22/2026, 1:43:05 PM2 trades$8,7090 min
6/18/2026, 3:59:50 AM26 trades$8,3565 min
6/22/2026, 11:58:58 AM2 trades$8,0280 min
6/22/2026, 11:02:11 AM3 trades$7,9600 min
6/27/2026, 7:18:35 AM26 trades$7,8522 min
6/20/2026, 4:19:37 PM19 trades$7,4825 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-21
01-19
06-12
06-18
06-21
06-24
07-04

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 12 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
66.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 15.48/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L44.7 / M24.6 / H30.6