Polymarketier

@Polymarketier

#2,938,4040

0x4f72d05a005f239725eb2497ee22b0f40c6e230a

~30d· 46 markets · 224 tradesVol: $89,209 @Tradealer2026-08-05 02:24:02
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

0
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

9% (4/45)0/20
0.22x (win $388 / loss $1,777)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -11.2700/15
Sortino -11.0300/10
$-0.4945 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 3362 (45 markets)0/10
3/22 profitable days (14%)0/10
Max DD 634% of peak ($1,650 / $260)0/10

Badges

1
Lottery Player
76% entries < $0.20

Categories

2
CRYPTO#1,619,678$-1,022Vol: $84,327
🏛️ POLITICS#1,496,633$-74Vol: $4,882

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-1,096
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$89,209
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
46
total markets
Trades
70B / 154S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~30d

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
9%
4W / 41L events
Realized PnL
$-1,096
Win Rate
9%
4W / 41L
Profit Factor
0.22x
Avg Win
$97
Avg Loss
$-44

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $386 (0.3521421012297924% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 26-1?$260
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in March?$121
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?$5
Will the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)?$2

Top Losers

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 30?$-200
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16?$-147
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May?$-140
Will XRP reach $1.40 May 25-31?$-138
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 18?$-115
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 February 9-15?$-78
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16?$-73
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 2?$-71
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6?$-70
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 February 2-8?$-66

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.576
Sortino
-0.836
HHI
195
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.726
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
7.1%
Top-5 markets
22.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1.2
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.2
Active Hours
18/24
Extended
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
3.0h
between trades
Night Trading
25%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.21
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.4

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 210s — normal for humanCV 1.21 — diverse sizes (human-like)25% night trades — never sleeps18/24 hours — extended activity1 trades/day — normal0.2 markets/day — normal12% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
4.04
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)75.7%
Mid (20-55c)12.9%
High (>55c)11.4%

Sessions

#12
5/30/2026, 1:02:32 AM15 trades$14,1936 min
5/15/2026, 5:39:50 PM2 trades$3,6710 min
6/5/2026, 9:02:52 PM44 trades$1,7615 min
7/6/2026, 12:35:41 AM10 trades$1,6540 min
5/16/2026, 11:41:20 AM19 trades$1,3940 min
6/5/2026, 3:42:52 PM6 trades$1,0480 min
7/10/2026, 1:03:20 PM9 trades$7260 min
7/31/2026, 9:28:14 AM3 trades$3540 min
6/5/2026, 10:22:52 PM9 trades$2950 min
6/5/2026, 3:15:25 PM4 trades$2351 min
6/7/2026, 3:00:24 AM23 trades$2101 min
2/6/2026, 11:17:25 AM7 trades$2043 min
1/30/2026, 12:10:10 PM2 trades$2001 min
5/30/2026, 1:22:33 AM3 trades$1970 min
6/6/2026, 11:04:04 AM8 trades$1940 min
3/20/2026, 5:17:27 PM2 trades$1710 min
6/7/2026, 3:06:54 AM2 trades$1280 min
6/19/2026, 12:38:29 PM3 trades$1250 min
2/17/2026, 4:15:29 PM1 trades$1150 min
2/8/2026, 2:07:49 PM3 trades$1044 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-20
01-30
02-04
02-15
02-19
05-15
06-05
07-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 184 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
68.8% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.04/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L75.7 / M12.9 / H11.4