@sage-dom

#2,267,54223

0x5444c4e4f8673091a3e21a3818a5d8839c1e35e6

~41d· 86 markets · 289 tradesVol: $7,155 @auroa_jiang2026-08-04 21:10:26
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

23
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

50% (39/78)10/20
0.74x (win $411 / loss $553)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -2.7950/15
Sortino -3.7760/10
$-0.0780 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 326 (78 markets)10/10
12/28 profitable days (43%)3.2/10
Max DD 180% of peak ($319 / $177)0/10

Badges

2
Win Streak
9 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
23/24 hours active

Categories

6
CRYPTO#1,245,246$-18Vol: $5,539
SPORTS#1,463,470$-20Vol: $693
🏛️ POLITICS#1,122,783$-4Vol: $548
📈 ECONOMICS#89,779$2Vol: $168
💰 FINANCE#442,109$-1Vol: $20
💻 TECH#28,565$3Vol: $13

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-37
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$7,155
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
86
total markets
Trades
159B / 130S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~41d

Periods

#2
Today
$-0
Vol: $0
Week
$-1
Vol: $975
Month
$-17
Vol: $1,192
All Time
$-37
Vol: $7,155

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
50%
39W / 39L events
Realized PnL
$-37
Win Rate
50%
39W / 39L
Profit Factor
0.74x
Avg Win
$11
Avg Loss
$-16

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $162 (4.338523489932887% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET$79
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$53
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$29
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$28
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11PM ET$17
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET$12
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$12
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET$11

Top Losers

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$-66
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 2?$-54
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET$-54
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 5?$-45
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET$-41
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET$-33
Knicks vs. Spurs$-27
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$-26
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$-21
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$-19

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.144
Sortino
-0.239
HHI
266
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.079
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
6.6%
Top-5 markets
24.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1.0
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.3
Active Hours
23/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
15.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.6h
between trades
Night Trading
20%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.21
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.8

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 904s — normal for humanCV 1.21 — diverse sizes (human-like)20% night trades — unusual hours23/24 hours — around the clock1 trades/day — normal0.3 markets/day — normal53% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.86
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)14.5%
Mid (20-55c)27.7%
High (>55c)57.9%

Sessions

#12
1/23/2026, 6:57:56 AM1 trades$1820 min
1/19/2026, 6:55:06 PM6 trades$1215 min
1/18/2026, 1:10:20 PM3 trades$1166 min
1/23/2026, 6:49:14 AM10 trades$1030 min
1/18/2026, 3:41:34 PM2 trades$942 min
1/19/2026, 2:06:10 PM2 trades$914 min
1/18/2026, 1:37:18 PM14 trades$891 min
1/18/2026, 1:31:12 PM4 trades$860 min
1/19/2026, 6:11:26 PM3 trades$761 min
1/19/2026, 4:51:24 PM8 trades$744 min
1/19/2026, 5:27:12 PM2 trades$602 min
1/19/2026, 4:12:18 PM1 trades$600 min
8/2/2026, 5:52:17 AM6 trades$580 min
3/1/2026, 8:23:31 PM1 trades$550 min
5/27/2026, 4:37:29 PM3 trades$500 min
1/21/2026, 4:44:18 PM1 trades$500 min
1/21/2026, 5:30:46 AM1 trades$500 min
1/19/2026, 1:29:36 PM1 trades$490 min
1/21/2026, 5:39:26 PM1 trades$490 min
1/21/2026, 6:12:00 PM8 trades$490 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-02
01-15
01-21
03-02
04-26
06-06
07-02

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 191 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
45% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.86/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L14.5 / M27.7 / H57.9