@simpsonsprediction

#2,945,3765

0x62daced8541785ee5f03003844e5032480c2326d

~38d· 59 markets · 680 tradesVol: $264,6732026-08-05 17:32:54
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

5
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

3% (2/58)0/20
0.01x (win $19 / loss $3,599)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -11.7990/15
Sortino -10.0390/10
$-0.9219 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 1462 (58 markets)5.2/10
0/27 profitable days (0%)0/10
Max DD 0% of peak ($3,580 / $0)0/10

Badges

2
Lottery Player
71% entries < $0.20
🦉Night Owl
23/24 hours active

Categories

7
🏛️ POLITICS#1,500,814$-79Vol: $116,406
📈 ECONOMICS#662,255$-112Vol: $68,950
🎭 CULTURE#808,157$-522Vol: $46,663
⚽ SPORTS#1,761,416$-270Vol: $13,790
💰 FINANCE#626,520$-72Vol: $13,025
📢 MENTIONS#127,783$-10Vol: $3,579
🌤️ WEATHER#283,680$-88Vol: $2,261

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-1,153
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$264,673
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
59
total markets
Trades
221B / 459S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~38d

Periods

#2
Today
$-4
Vol: $1,130
Week
$-21
Vol: $15,772
Month
$-36
Vol: $15,772
All Time
$-1,153
Vol: $264,673

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
3%
2W / 56L events
Realized PnL
$-1,153
Win Rate
3%
2W / 56L
Profit Factor
0.01x
Avg Win
$10
Avg Loss
$-72

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $19 (0.016539892625133352% of PnL)

Top Winners

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?$19

Top Losers

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$-439
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?$-430
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$-395
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?$-340
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$-202
Raptors vs. Cavaliers$-177
Magic vs. Pistons$-176
Will there be at least 2140 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$-146
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$-121
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$-114

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.606
Sortino
-0.599
HHI
564
Moderate
EV per $1
$-1.056
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
15.9%
Top-5 markets
46.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
5.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.5
Active Hours
23/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
18.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.3h
between trades
Night Trading
30%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.52
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
5.7

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 1101s — normal for humanCV 1.52 — diverse sizes (human-like)30% night trades — never sleeps23/24 hours — around the clock5 trades/day — normal0.5 markets/day — normal28% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
11.81
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)71%
Mid (20-55c)1.8%
High (>55c)27.1%

Sessions

#12
5/2/2026, 10:43:30 PM8 trades$12,7401 min
5/3/2026, 3:23:06 AM6 trades$11,0501 min
5/2/2026, 6:11:08 PM2 trades$10,6670 min
5/9/2026, 5:15:47 PM2 trades$10,3250 min
5/9/2026, 10:19:23 PM6 trades$9,6660 min
5/2/2026, 5:49:44 PM10 trades$8,3336 min
8/2/2026, 9:20:30 AM4 trades$5,9770 min
5/16/2026, 10:48:31 PM5 trades$5,9405 min
6/14/2026, 11:13:57 PM2 trades$5,7750 min
6/20/2026, 1:12:14 AM4 trades$3,5781 min
6/17/2026, 12:18:04 AM2 trades$3,3300 min
6/15/2026, 8:00:39 PM2 trades$2,9650 min
6/18/2026, 11:15:52 AM7 trades$2,8151 min
5/18/2026, 2:59:35 AM2 trades$2,7500 min
7/31/2026, 7:47:08 PM8 trades$2,5690 min
5/3/2026, 4:18:54 AM4 trades$2,5551 min
6/20/2026, 4:30:05 AM5 trades$2,5411 min
6/18/2026, 5:05:46 PM4 trades$2,4901 min
6/15/2026, 3:23:07 AM6 trades$2,1062 min
7/20/2026, 11:27:28 AM3 trades$2,0860 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-31
05-16
05-30
06-15
06-20
07-06
07-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
67.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 11.81/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L71 / M1.8 / H27.1