the.mirage

@the.mirage

#2,495,74252

0x6e848a77a690381dc4f2b8c9cfca231fe74c4c7e

~8d· 15 markets · 81 tradesVol: $3,1552026-08-04 18:59:24
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

52
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

14% (2/14)0/20
1.63x (win $71 / loss $43)10.4/15
Annualised Sharpe 3.18915/15
Sortino 5.95210/10
$+0.1412 per $1 invested7.1/10
HHI 1210 (14 markets)6.5/10
2/7 profitable days (29%)0/10
Max DD 56% of peak ($36 / $63)2.7/10

Badges

1
Lottery Player
50% entries < $0.20

Categories

3
🏛️ POLITICS#1,489,327$-67Vol: $1,889
⚽ SPORTS#1,436,665$-17Vol: $1,264
₿ CRYPTO#608,422$0Vol: $3

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-84
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$3,155
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
15
total markets
Trades
26B / 55S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~8d

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$0
Vol: $0
Month
$0
Vol: $0
All Time
$-84
Vol: $3,155

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
14%
2W / 12L events
Realized PnL
$-84
Win Rate
14%
2W / 12L
Profit Factor
1.63x
Avg Win
$35
Avg Loss
$-6

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $71 (0.8386027235050325% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$49
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$22

Top Losers

Mexico vs. England: Mexico O/U 2.5$-33
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-4
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$-4
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?$-2
Will Cape Verde win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-1
Will Paraguay win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-0
Will Colombia win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.155
Sortino
0.268
HHI
4555
Concentrated
EV per $1
$0.085
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
49.5%
Top-5 markets
128.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2.0
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.4
Active Hours
8/24
Normal
Peak Hour
5:00 UTC
Median Gap
43s
between trades
Avg Gap
53.3m
between trades
Night Trading
78%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.98
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
12
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
6.8

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
HIGH
Active Hours
LOW
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 43s — normal for humanCV 0.98 — diverse sizes (human-like)78% night trades — never sleeps8/24 hours — normal schedule2 trades/day — normal0.4 markets/day — normal32% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 5:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
8.07
Active DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)50%
Mid (20-55c)3.8%
High (>55c)46.2%

Sessions

#12
7/4/2026, 5:32:22 AM12 trades$1135 min
7/4/2026, 5:19:43 AM22 trades$1105 min
5/28/2026, 1:07:03 AM8 trades$870 min
6/6/2026, 7:00:42 PM10 trades$675 min
6/1/2026, 3:18:22 AM10 trades$601 min
6/29/2026, 2:35:52 PM2 trades$420 min
6/29/2026, 2:41:05 PM2 trades$410 min
7/6/2026, 1:48:23 AM2 trades$410 min
7/6/2026, 2:37:20 AM5 trades$271 min
6/3/2026, 2:30:48 AM4 trades$220 min
6/3/2026, 5:13:00 PM2 trades$90 min
6/26/2026, 1:59:25 PM2 trades$10 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
05-28
06-03
06-06
06-26
06-29
07-04
07-06

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 7 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
67.9% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 8.07/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L50 / M3.8 / H46.2