@thesuperforecaster
#3,054,947630x702b852b897491cba37574aa08fe78cc54adafd4
~20d· 20 markets · 432 tradesVol: $460,4862026-08-04 15:18:23
SMART SCORE SYSTEM
Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.
Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.
63
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard
Score Components
37% (7/19)3.4/20
2.59x (win $114,549 / loss $44,180)15/15
Annualised Sharpe 4.74715/15
Sortino 20.51710/10
$+0.6810 per $1 invested10/10
HHI 2257 (19 markets)1.2/10
3/10 profitable days (30%)0/10
Max DD 26% of peak ($18,530 / $70,368)8.7/10
Badges
3Whale
$103,334 invested
High Roller
$1,667/day
Cool Head
Max DD 26%
Categories
5⚽ SPORTS#58,225$475Vol: $394,362
₿ CRYPTO#1,671,025$-7,611Vol: $39,183
🏛️ POLITICS#43,619$208Vol: $10,094
💰 FINANCE#636,519$-127Vol: $8,627
💻 TECH#257,742$-1,271Vol: $8,220
Overview
#1Net PnL
$-8,327
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$460,486
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
20
total markets
Trades
160B / 272S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~20d
PnL Analysis
#3Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology
Win Rate (events)
37%
7W / 12L events
Realized PnL
$-8,327
Win Rate
37%
7W / 12L
Profit Factor
2.59x
Avg Win
$14,319
Avg Loss
$-4,909
Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $112,691 (13.532918865300692% of PnL)
Top Winners
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$97,495
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$11,620
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?$3,576
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance$1,410
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?$244
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?$111
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?$92
Top Losers
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$-14,533
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-14,405
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-8,596
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance$-2,605
Spread: England (-1.5)$-2,297
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?$-1,581
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B?$-130
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?$-26
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-9
Risk Metrics
#4Sharpe
0.236
Sortino
1.084
HHI
5913
Concentrated
EV per $1
$0.395
Kelly %
4.6%
Half-Kelly
2.3%
Top-1 market
56.9%
Top-5 markets
148.2%
Behavior Analysis
#5Trades / Day
7.0
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.3
Active Hours
19/24
Extended
Peak Hour
22:00 UTC
Median Gap
6.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.1h
between trades
Night Trading
11%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.70
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
7.5
Bot Detection
#65
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability
7 indicators analyzed
Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 396s — normal for humanCV 1.70 — diverse sizes (human-like)11% night trades — normal pattern19/24 hours — extended activity7 trades/day — normal0.3 markets/day — normal37% maker — normal mix
Timing Patterns
#7Peak hour: 22:00 UTC
0
4
8
12
16
20
DCA Analysis
#8Avg entries/market
36.53
Price Levels
#9Low (<20c)28.8%
Mid (20-55c)15.6%
High (>55c)55.6%
Sessions
#126/1/2026, 11:21:49 AM6 trades$13,0951 min
7/9/2026, 9:13:32 PM10 trades$11,9891 min
7/11/2026, 10:26:16 PM16 trades$11,2724 min
7/10/2026, 7:13:31 PM23 trades$9,7503 min
6/1/2026, 1:20:56 PM16 trades$9,0472 min
7/10/2026, 9:56:11 PM4 trades$8,9251 min
7/18/2026, 6:38:15 PM2 trades$8,8600 min
7/11/2026, 11:57:01 PM17 trades$8,8360 min
7/12/2026, 12:12:10 AM2 trades$8,5820 min
7/10/2026, 4:50:23 PM15 trades$7,8665 min
7/7/2026, 4:51:47 PM15 trades$7,7876 min
7/12/2026, 12:41:23 AM2 trades$7,0000 min
7/12/2026, 10:29:19 AM2 trades$7,0000 min
6/1/2026, 9:02:24 AM12 trades$6,1184 min
6/1/2026, 12:41:54 PM17 trades$5,7990 min
7/9/2026, 10:33:01 PM10 trades$5,3751 min
7/12/2026, 11:34:34 AM2 trades$5,0000 min
7/15/2026, 8:01:04 PM4 trades$5,0000 min
7/9/2026, 10:02:50 PM2 trades$4,3370 min
5/31/2026, 5:28:55 PM5 trades$4,25311 min
Equity Curve
#13Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
06-01
06-05
06-09
06-28
07-10
07-11
07-12
07-14
07-18
07-19
Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)
Profile
#14Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
63% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 36.53/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L28.8 / M15.6 / H55.6