@Arbalian

#2,616,46724

0x7091b63d7d89441983b2fbd903bfd9284153cc89

~20d· 61 markets · 103 tradesVol: $3,2962026-08-05 02:38:54
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

24
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

53% (30/57)11.3/20
0.53x (win $134 / loss $251)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -8.6240/15
Sortino -8.0400/10
$-0.0992 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 326 (57 markets)10/10
7/18 profitable days (39%)2.2/10
Max DD 3580% of peak ($120 / $3)0/10

Categories

8
📈 ECONOMICS#53,125$6Vol: $989
🏛️ POLITICS#1,453,432$-45Vol: $952
💰 FINANCE#582,593$-13Vol: $694
₿ CRYPTO#1,366,798$-42Vol: $439
💻 TECH#28,239$4Vol: $85
🎭 CULTURE#645,279$-5Vol: $63
⚽ SPORTS#1,415,836$-15Vol: $57
🌤️ WEATHER#254,924$-15Vol: $17

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-125
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$3,296
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
61
total markets
Trades
69B / 34S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~20d

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$1
Vol: $0
Month
$9
Vol: $0
All Time
$-125
Vol: $3,296

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
53%
30W / 27L events
Realized PnL
$-125
Win Rate
53%
30W / 27L
Profit Factor
0.53x
Avg Win
$4
Avg Loss
$-10

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $39 (0.31518006867364046% of PnL)

Top Winners

Ethereum all time high by September 30?$14
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?$14
US forces enter Iran by April 30?$12
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?$9
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?$9
Will Trump visit China by March 31?$7
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after October 2025 meeting?$7
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$6
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?$6
Eagles vs. Chiefs$5

Top Losers

Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?$-35
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?$-20
Will Silver (SI) settle over $120 on the final trading day of January 2026?$-20
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?$-20
XRP all time high by December 31?$-15
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by October 31?$-15
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?$-15
Will CZ return to Binance by December 31?$-11
Will Pump.fun hit $0.01 in 2025?$-11
Trump imposes tariff on pharmaceuticals by August 31?$-11

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.439
Sortino
-0.427
HHI
392
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.102
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
10.3%
Top-5 markets
34.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.3
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.2
Active Hours
10/24
Normal
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
22s
between trades
Avg Gap
34.9m
between trades
Night Trading
0%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.25
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
21
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.9

Bot Detection

#6
0
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 22s — normal for humanCV 1.25 — diverse sizes (human-like)0% night trades — normal pattern10/24 hours — normal schedule0 trades/day — normal0.2 markets/day — normal7% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.61
Single entry

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)7.2%
Mid (20-55c)31.9%
High (>55c)60.9%

Sessions

#12
8/3/2025, 3:55:08 PM8 trades$2675 min
9/14/2025, 9:16:42 PM14 trades$22610 min
9/23/2025, 9:18:38 PM15 trades$1886 min
8/12/2025, 9:48:23 PM8 trades$1462 min
3/27/2026, 11:57:11 AM4 trades$14011 min
3/27/2026, 12:21:59 PM4 trades$1402 min
9/24/2025, 7:02:26 PM12 trades$1186 min
6/14/2026, 3:37:30 PM8 trades$911 min
6/25/2026, 8:34:14 PM8 trades$561 min
9/25/2025, 2:53:44 PM2 trades$540 min
1/28/2026, 7:39:24 PM2 trades$372 min
9/4/2025, 12:13:28 PM2 trades$351 min
8/18/2025, 5:08:30 PM3 trades$330 min
7/19/2026, 6:56:34 PM3 trades$320 min
8/21/2025, 2:24:56 PM3 trades$321 min
8/23/2025, 2:02:03 PM2 trades$221 min
9/28/2025, 12:04:47 PM1 trades$200 min
10/9/2025, 7:43:22 PM1 trades$200 min
10/31/2025, 11:16:07 AM1 trades$90 min
8/10/2025, 4:09:18 PM1 trades$50 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
08-03
08-18
09-14
09-25
10-12
03-27

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 315 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
33% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.61/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L7.2 / M31.9 / H60.9