@fatemonger

#2,880,5934

0x716373e8e9f7eb1f31af9ff8869549a6229f36a9

~19d· 24 markets · 111 tradesVol: $31,9992026-08-04 23:41:59
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

4
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

28% (5/18)0/20
0.34x (win $1,149 / loss $3,353)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -3.9930/15
Sortino -3.9870/10
$-0.4861 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 5383 (18 markets)0/10
5/11 profitable days (45%)3.9/10
Max DD 325% of peak ($3,184 / $980)0/10

Badges

1
Lottery Player
39% entries < $0.20

Categories

2
🏛️ POLITICS#1,601,874$-554Vol: $28,008
📈 ECONOMICS#657,355$-89Vol: $3,991

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-643
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$31,999
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
24
total markets
Trades
51B / 60S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~19d

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
28%
5W / 13L events
Realized PnL
$-643
Win Rate
28%
5W / 13L
Profit Factor
0.34x
Avg Win
$230
Avg Loss
$-258

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,047 (1.6273449278065308% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$528
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$299
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?$219
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?$82
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?$20

Top Losers

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$-2,918
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?$-245
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?$-40
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of March?$-40
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?$-20
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$-20
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?$-20
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?$-16
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?$-10
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?$-7

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.199
Sortino
-0.155
HHI
13125
Concentrated
EV per $1
$-0.324
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
113.8%
Top-5 markets
138%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.7
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.2
Active Hours
14/24
Extended
Peak Hour
1:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.9h
between trades
Night Trading
59%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.85
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
29
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.8

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
MEDIUM
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 126s — normal for humanCV 1.85 — diverse sizes (human-like)59% night trades — never sleeps14/24 hours — normal schedule1 trades/day — normal0.2 markets/day — normal9% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 1:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
7.5
Active DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)39.2%
Mid (20-55c)37.3%
High (>55c)23.5%

Sessions

#12
6/22/2026, 1:45:16 AM48 trades$2,7660 min
2/28/2026, 11:41:31 PM3 trades$1,1524 min
2/28/2026, 2:52:37 PM1 trades$1,0000 min
2/28/2026, 2:36:19 PM2 trades$9290 min
3/7/2026, 4:36:51 AM1 trades$8240 min
3/2/2026, 1:38:03 AM3 trades$7504 min
4/1/2026, 1:33:11 PM2 trades$4000 min
2/20/2026, 2:01:14 AM4 trades$3395 min
3/1/2026, 2:25:01 PM2 trades$3001 min
3/30/2026, 7:18:51 PM1 trades$2330 min
6/3/2026, 10:15:15 PM10 trades$2281 min
3/8/2026, 4:35:01 AM1 trades$2100 min
3/11/2026, 1:30:03 PM1 trades$2000 min
3/1/2026, 9:02:47 PM1 trades$1840 min
2/3/2026, 5:27:22 PM4 trades$1805 min
3/1/2026, 4:37:19 PM2 trades$1501 min
3/3/2026, 4:31:27 AM2 trades$1392 min
3/2/2026, 1:32:31 AM1 trades$1320 min
2/26/2026, 10:52:12 PM2 trades$1201 min
1/28/2026, 3:56:47 AM1 trades$1000 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-25
02-18
02-20
02-23
03-01
03-02
03-03
03-07
03-08
06-03
06-22

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 19 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
54.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 7.5/mkt
Entry Bias
MIXED
L39.2 / M37.3 / H23.5