maybefog

@maybefog

#2,832,39324

0x758df9f96b91e0fc9caf668a832c55b562fd9548

~67d· 962 markets · 4839 tradesVol: $54,7482026-08-04 21:05:06
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

24
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

55% (526/961)12.4/20
0.57x (win $1,098 / loss $1,935)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -4.2730/15
Sortino -4.4100/10
$-0.1737 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 767 (961 markets)8.7/10
28/66 profitable days (42%)3.1/10
Max DD 0% of peak ($863 / $0)0/10

Badges

3
DCA Master
Avg 5.0 entries/market
Win Streak
9 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

3
🌤️ WEATHER#294,454$-390Vol: $47,203
🏛️ POLITICS#1,339,611$-15Vol: $5,364
CRYPTO#1,340,009$-34Vol: $2,181

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-440
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$54,748
Total Redeem
$4
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
962
total markets
Trades
2249B / 2590S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~67d

Periods

#2
Today
$2
Vol: $44
Week
$2
Vol: $172
Month
$36
Vol: $191
All Time
$-440
Vol: $54,748

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
55%
526W / 435L events
Realized PnL
$-440
Win Rate
55%
526W / 435L
Profit Factor
0.57x
Avg Win
$2
Avg Loss
$-6

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $205 (0.46576058546785154% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 5?$112
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13?$55
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 29?$39
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 5?$33
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13?$33
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 7?$21
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 6?$21
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 9?$20
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 4?$20
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 8?$20

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or below on May 13?$-366
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on May 4?$-90
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18?$-68
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?$-55
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 3?$-49
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10?$-46
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16?$-45
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21?$-32
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11?$-29
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19?$-29

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.222
Sortino
-0.187
HHI
66
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.175
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
5.1%
Top-5 markets
12.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
50.4
Very active
Markets / Day
10.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
8:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
34.4m
between trades
Night Trading
16%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.17
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
18.0

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 113s — normal for humanCV 2.17 — diverse sizes (human-like)16% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock50 trades/day — mass trading10 markets/day — mass coverage47% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 8:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
5.04
Active DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)13.9%
Mid (20-55c)16.1%
High (>55c)70%

Sessions

#12
5/2/2026, 8:07:14 AM194 trades$4,9292 min
5/5/2026, 10:23:48 AM26 trades$3,0166 min
5/5/2026, 5:32:42 AM12 trades$3,0129 min
5/2/2026, 7:37:20 AM2 trades$1,0000 min
6/8/2026, 4:54:58 PM12 trades$6454 min
6/18/2026, 11:37:40 AM29 trades$5054 min
6/6/2026, 9:10:06 PM19 trades$5024 min
6/6/2026, 4:01:24 PM13 trades$4734 min
6/18/2026, 1:43:07 AM31 trades$41011 min
6/17/2026, 1:29:08 PM25 trades$4022 min
6/8/2026, 5:06:57 PM8 trades$3642 min
6/10/2026, 6:49:36 AM11 trades$3470 min
5/13/2026, 5:00:18 AM2 trades$2500 min
5/13/2026, 10:44:05 AM2 trades$2500 min
6/16/2026, 2:03:44 PM6 trades$2031 min
6/6/2026, 6:49:24 PM17 trades$1972 min
5/13/2026, 4:28:13 AM8 trades$1670 min
5/13/2026, 4:48:01 AM30 trades$1600 min
6/26/2026, 9:24:59 PM5 trades$1422 min
6/7/2026, 7:47:13 AM17 trades$14210 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-24
05-05
05-16
06-10
06-21
07-13

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
98% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
53.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 5.04/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L13.9 / M16.1 / H70