@bakingcakes

#193,22582

0x768fc4f589d8dc5a319910cdc59c1faef3758d79

~19d· 39 markets · 97 tradesVol: $36,0412026-08-04 19:44:35
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

82
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

87% (33/38)20/20
2.42x (win $555 / loss $229)15/15
Annualised Sharpe 5.81015/15
Sortino 11.20410/10
$+0.0143 per $1 invested0.7/10
HHI 1395 (38 markets)5.5/10
16/18 profitable days (89%)10/10
Max DD 40% of peak ($131 / $325)6/10

Badges

4
Sniper
Win rate 87%
Profitable
PnL $+157
Consistent
16/18 profitable days
Win Streak
10 wins in a row

Categories

7
📈 ECONOMICS#30,858$18Vol: $10,868
🌤️ WEATHER#18,771$15Vol: $8,672
🏛️ POLITICS#81,655$62Vol: $8,618
🎭 CULTURE#30,490$50Vol: $4,643
₿ CRYPTO#1,421,628$-66Vol: $1,835
⚽ SPORTS#137,429$77Vol: $1,339
💰 FINANCE#167,992$0Vol: $65

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$157
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$36,041
Total Redeem
$653
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
39
total markets
Trades
78B / 19S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~19d

Periods

#2
Today
$2
Vol: $740
Week
$2
Vol: $740
Month
$2
Vol: $740
All Time
$157
Vol: $36,041

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
87%
33W / 5L events
Realized PnL
$157
Win Rate
87%
33W / 5L
Profit Factor
2.42x
Avg Win
$17
Avg Loss
$-76

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $270 (1.7183564432006104% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$123
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on July 25?$100
Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025?$47
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$42
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 18–25?$40
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$40
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?$31
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?$21
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$19
Will the ECB announce no change at the July meeting?$16

Top Losers

Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on July 25?$-98
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January?$-84
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January?$-47

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.295
Sortino
inf
HHI
1194
Moderate
EV per $1
$0.013
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
23.3%
Top-5 markets
62.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.3
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
20/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
0:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.1h
between trades
Night Trading
40%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.62
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
35
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.8

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
MEDIUM
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 64s — normal for humanCV 1.62 — diverse sizes (human-like)40% night trades — never sleeps20/24 hours — extended activity0 trades/day — normal0.1 markets/day — normal49% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 0:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.95
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0%
Mid (20-55c)0%
High (>55c)100%

Sessions

#12
7/24/2025, 2:47:54 PM8 trades$10,6092 min
7/25/2025, 11:08:27 AM5 trades$4,3211 min
7/24/2025, 12:57:28 AM3 trades$2,5884 min
7/24/2025, 12:41:50 AM3 trades$2,3424 min
6/8/2026, 12:50:25 AM2 trades$1,3370 min
6/15/2026, 10:26:36 AM8 trades$8070 min
4/30/2026, 11:43:42 PM6 trades$7981 min
4/13/2026, 2:36:57 AM9 trades$7692 min
7/25/2025, 12:19:56 AM9 trades$7512 min
7/21/2026, 2:37:51 AM2 trades$7370 min
8/4/2026, 5:32:57 AM1 trades$7370 min
6/2/2026, 7:37:37 AM2 trades$6690 min
7/26/2025, 5:56:23 AM1 trades$6650 min
7/17/2026, 1:27:18 PM2 trades$6450 min
7/26/2025, 12:45:31 PM1 trades$3670 min
7/24/2025, 12:36:48 AM1 trades$3590 min
7/3/2026, 3:24:04 PM3 trades$2470 min
3/26/2026, 4:07:45 PM6 trades$20411 min
1/31/2026, 7:47:36 AM3 trades$1310 min
1/25/2026, 2:05:46 PM1 trades$1300 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
07-24
10-28
01-25
04-13
06-02
07-03

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 6 days (recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
7.9% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
19.6% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.95/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L0 / M0 / H100