litio

@litio

#109,41032

0x7b43c58837a668307c53bf66b4be154e271131ce

~164d· 536 markets · 3177 tradesVol: $1,442,424 @ramasch822026-08-06 15:53:57
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

32
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

61% (319/527)15.3/20
0.98x (win $20,933 / loss $21,375)2.2/15
Annualised Sharpe -0.0790/15
Sortino -0.0890/10
$-0.0007 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 1168 (527 markets)6.7/10
84/134 profitable days (63%)8.2/10
Max DD 357% of peak ($10,509 / $2,945)0/10

Badges

9
Sniper
Win rate 61%
Profitable
PnL $+568
DCA Master
Avg 7.5 entries/market
Whale
$615,457 invested
Consistent
84/134 profitable days
High Roller
$2,182/day
Win Streak
13 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
🏗️Market Maker
82% maker orders

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#1,621,766$-1,424Vol: $796,905
SPORTS#1,824,860$-931Vol: $319,150
💰 FINANCE#2,894$1,636Vol: $169,717
CRYPTO#29,347$1,066Vol: $59,876
🎭 CULTURE#60,975$13Vol: $36,733
📈 ECONOMICS#635,997$-27Vol: $20,690
📢 MENTIONS#15,040$19Vol: $14,087
💻 TECH#226,794$-10Vol: $10,291
🌤️ WEATHER#73,590$0Vol: $912

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$568
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,442,424
Total Redeem
$8,702
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
536
total markets
Trades
2174B / 1003S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~164d

Periods

#2
Today
$-63
Vol: $0
Week
$564
Vol: $0
Month
$434
Vol: $0
All Time
$568
Vol: $1,442,424

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
61%
319W / 208L events
Realized PnL
$568
Win Rate
61%
319W / 208L
Profit Factor
0.98x
Avg Win
$66
Avg Loss
$-114

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $5,407 (9.52529683261107% of PnL)

Top Winners

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$2,041
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1,841
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1,524
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$1,082
Netanyahu out by March 31?$885
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?$874
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?$846
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$485
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?$468
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-10?$388

Top Losers

Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-03-21?$-6,698
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-3,039
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$-2,670
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-1,876
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$-1,276
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$-925
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$-594
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-312
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?$-279
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-214

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.004
Sortino
-0.003
HHI
1799
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.001
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
36%
Top-5 markets
66.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
11.3
Active
Markets / Day
1.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.1h
between trades
Night Trading
11%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.86
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
5.2

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 234s — normal for humanCV 2.86 — diverse sizes (human-like)11% night trades — normal pattern24/24 hours — around the clock11 trades/day — very active1.9 markets/day — normal82% maker — frequent liquidity provider

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
7.54
Active DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)25%
Mid (20-55c)10.7%
High (>55c)64.4%

Sessions

#12
3/2/2026, 11:08:23 PM1 trades$14,9850 min
3/3/2026, 5:26:51 AM2 trades$14,9761 min
3/3/2026, 5:45:15 PM2 trades$13,9583 min
3/3/2026, 7:19:01 PM4 trades$13,9441 min
3/15/2026, 2:42:05 PM4 trades$13,6504 min
3/12/2026, 10:52:53 PM5 trades$10,8224 min
3/14/2026, 7:03:09 PM13 trades$10,7439 min
3/17/2026, 1:38:49 PM1 trades$10,2290 min
4/7/2026, 10:34:45 PM9 trades$9,7646 min
3/18/2026, 9:23:31 PM2 trades$9,2781 min
3/3/2026, 6:24:07 PM3 trades$9,1832 min
3/17/2026, 9:25:17 PM20 trades$9,0132 min
3/14/2026, 4:42:41 PM18 trades$8,87423 min
3/19/2026, 3:52:45 PM1 trades$8,3680 min
3/11/2026, 5:40:03 AM1 trades$8,1460 min
3/14/2026, 10:52:07 PM2 trades$8,1313 min
3/21/2026, 7:08:43 PM7 trades$8,03413 min
2/28/2026, 9:05:31 PM1 trades$7,9840 min
3/15/2026, 4:44:13 PM2 trades$7,5354 min
2/26/2026, 6:33:56 PM5 trades$7,1426 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
10-23
02-14
03-08
04-03
05-03
06-10
07-25

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 34 days (recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
31.6% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 7.54/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L25 / M10.7 / H64.4