@fermicon
#2,829,759170x912dd32217b6dd21e5a7930aedb2da8285b5f1fe
~54d· 57 markets · 241 tradesVol: $38,0562026-08-05 00:39:00
SMART SCORE SYSTEM
Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.
Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.
17
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard
Score Components
39% (22/57)4.3/20
0.83x (win $877 / loss $1,057)0.4/15
Annualised Sharpe -1.3230/15
Sortino -2.2610/10
$-0.0480 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 356 (57 markets)10/10
14/37 profitable days (38%)2/10
Max DD 0% of peak ($489 / $0)0/10
Badges
2Lottery Player
31% entries < $0.20
Win Streak
5 wins in a row
Categories
5💰 FINANCE#612,151$-37Vol: $23,710
💻 TECH#254,794$-315Vol: $13,513
⚽ SPORTS#1,561,615$-40Vol: $617
🏛️ POLITICS#1,099,083$-4Vol: $131
🎭 CULTURE#747,142$-33Vol: $86
Overview
#1Net PnL
$-429
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$38,056
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
57
total markets
Trades
100B / 141S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~54d
PnL Analysis
#3Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology
Win Rate (events)
39%
22W / 35L events
Realized PnL
$-429
Win Rate
39%
22W / 35L
Profit Factor
0.83x
Avg Win
$40
Avg Loss
$-33
Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $587 (1.36717294073798% of PnL)
Top Winners
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?$328
Will GPT-5 be released on August 7?$137
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?$122
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?$58
GPT-5.4 released by March 9?$39
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?$25
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?$21
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?$21
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?$20
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?$18
Top Losers
GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$-250
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?$-178
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?$-85
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?$-65
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?$-58
GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026?$-58
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?$-54
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16?$-39
Will Elon tweet 475–499 times August 8–August 15?$-33
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$-31
Risk Metrics
#4Sharpe
-0.068
Sortino
-0.120
HHI
404
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.047
Kelly %
1.1%
Half-Kelly
0.6%
Top-1 market
7.7%
Top-5 markets
33.4%
Behavior Analysis
#5Trades / Day
0.7
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.2
Active Hours
21/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
11:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.7h
between trades
Night Trading
15%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.18
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.3
Bot Detection
#65
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability
7 indicators analyzed
Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 286s — normal for humanCV 1.18 — diverse sizes (human-like)15% night trades — normal pattern21/24 hours — extended activity1 trades/day — normal0.2 markets/day — normal19% maker — normal mix
Timing Patterns
#7Peak hour: 11:00 UTC
0
4
8
12
16
20
DCA Analysis
#8Avg entries/market
4.33
Price Levels
#9Low (<20c)31%
Mid (20-55c)24%
High (>55c)45%
Sessions
#128/7/2025, 4:08:35 PM2 trades$5740 min
2/19/2026, 4:22:34 PM2 trades$4771 min
6/11/2026, 11:29:46 AM21 trades$3754 min
3/5/2026, 6:35:49 PM4 trades$2987 min
6/5/2026, 11:30:42 PM10 trades$2751 min
8/5/2025, 5:27:02 AM3 trades$2572 min
6/9/2026, 9:39:45 AM6 trades$2200 min
8/5/2025, 5:16:26 AM2 trades$2000 min
3/11/2026, 2:44:39 PM2 trades$1931 min
4/10/2026, 12:38:35 AM3 trades$1840 min
2/11/2026, 10:56:31 PM2 trades$1801 min
2/15/2026, 12:09:49 AM2 trades$1785 min
4/14/2026, 3:14:45 PM7 trades$1690 min
8/4/2025, 11:59:14 AM2 trades$1540 min
3/7/2026, 10:07:35 PM2 trades$1532 min
8/5/2025, 6:08:20 AM1 trades$1500 min
7/15/2026, 7:39:44 PM17 trades$1480 min
2/14/2026, 9:48:45 PM2 trades$1420 min
2/17/2026, 5:29:45 PM2 trades$1350 min
2/17/2026, 10:31:15 PM3 trades$1301 min
Equity Curve
#13Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
08-05
12-10
02-14
03-05
04-14
06-15
07-15
Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)
Profile
#14Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
58.5% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.33/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L31 / M24 / H45