havarra

@havarra

#45,86823

0x95b35426f3deed6cbaaa47b3ac6ede5829699989

~223d· 204 markets · 7564 tradesVol: $3,113,6672026-08-05 17:28:04
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

23
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

43% (81/190)6.3/20
0.97x (win $15,078 / loss $15,506)2.2/15
Annualised Sharpe -0.1340/15
Sortino -0.1940/10
$-0.0104 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 370 (190 markets)10/10
47/100 profitable days (47%)4.2/10
Max DD 111% of peak ($4,433 / $4,005)0/10

Badges

5
Profitable
PnL $+2,363
Lottery Player
94% entries < $0.20
Win Streak
6 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
🏗️Market Maker
99% maker orders

Categories

6
CRYPTO#1,667,962$-4,806Vol: $1,641,685
💰 FINANCE#626$8,806Vol: $1,032,479
📈 ECONOMICS#679,508$-1,061Vol: $390,098
🎭 CULTURE#811,135$-776Vol: $30,015
🏛️ POLITICS#37,783$273Vol: $18,790
💻 TECH#247,297$-73Vol: $600

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$2,363
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$3,113,667
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
204
total markets
Trades
6348B / 1216S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~223d

Periods

#2
Today
$2
Vol: $3
Week
$-20
Vol: $17
Month
$-29
Vol: $17
All Time
$2,363
Vol: $3,113,667

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
43%
81W / 109L events
Realized PnL
$2,363
Win Rate
43%
81W / 109L
Profit Factor
0.97x
Avg Win
$186
Avg Loss
$-142

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $6,180 (2.6151577218982487% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025?$2,566
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?$2,500
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$1,114
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 21-27?$979
Will Solstice launch a token by March 31 2026?$675
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June?$663
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31?$614
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 30-January 5?$585
Will Gold close between $4600 and $4700 at the end of 2025?$577
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,725-$4,850 in January?$446

Top Losers

Will Zcash flip Monero by December 31?$-2,775
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?$-2,117
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 660k+ BTC by December 31?$-1,234
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4?$-836
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June?$-501
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?$-466
Will Gold (GC) settle at >$5,100 in January?$-386
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 28-May 4?$-355
Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026?$-329
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?$-321

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.007
Sortino
-0.008
HHI
786
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.009
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
24%
Top-5 markets
46.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
26.6
Active
Markets / Day
0.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
7:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
50.0m
between trades
Night Trading
19%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.81
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.2

Bot Detection

#6
50
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 228s — normal for humanCV 6.81 — diverse sizes (human-like)19% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock27 trades/day — high frequency0.7 markets/day — normal99% maker — systematic market making

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 7:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
39.92
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)94.2%
Mid (20-55c)2.4%
High (>55c)3.4%

Sessions

#12
12/24/2025, 1:32:33 PM1 trades$3,1850 min
4/14/2026, 4:44:12 PM3 trades$1,9751 min
1/14/2026, 7:48:10 AM4 trades$1,8874 min
4/21/2026, 3:36:12 PM1 trades$1,4760 min
1/14/2026, 12:39:30 PM1 trades$1,3300 min
12/31/2025, 7:35:31 AM2 trades$1,1132 min
12/8/2025, 1:01:15 PM9 trades$1,0853 min
4/26/2026, 12:06:10 PM5 trades$1,0225 min
11/28/2025, 9:00:43 PM2 trades$9971 min
4/14/2026, 4:51:32 PM5 trades$9867 min
1/4/2026, 12:24:21 AM1 trades$9520 min
1/18/2026, 1:23:16 PM6 trades$9459 min
1/14/2026, 12:50:46 PM1 trades$8000 min
1/14/2026, 7:36:32 AM4 trades$7612 min
1/30/2026, 5:09:02 PM10 trades$7215 min
11/12/2025, 7:21:08 AM7 trades$6587 min
11/28/2025, 3:05:11 PM35 trades$6268 min
12/31/2025, 7:43:57 PM1 trades$5510 min
12/30/2025, 9:47:17 PM3 trades$5223 min
4/25/2026, 12:39:04 PM3 trades$5132 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
10-28
12-08
01-04
02-05
03-31
05-15
06-11

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 62 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
16.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 39.92/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L94.2 / M2.4 / H3.4