@pegaduckywill

#105,45582

0x9618f93b3721011bfc5c09274a828b29383c0265

~56d· 60 markets · 468 tradesVol: $32,7412026-08-04 18:17:38
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

82
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

50% (27/54)10/20
3.09x (win $2,031 / loss $658)15/15
Annualised Sharpe 4.18515/15
Sortino 16.41810/10
$+0.4830 per $1 invested10/10
HHI 624 (54 markets)9.4/10
14/30 profitable days (47%)4.2/10
Max DD 28% of peak ($529 / $1,902)8.4/10

Badges

5
Profitable
PnL $+612
Lottery Player
66% entries < $0.20
DCA Master
Avg 9.3 entries/market
Cool Head
Max DD 28%
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

5
⚽ SPORTS#1,439,465$-18Vol: $10,006
₿ CRYPTO#1,458,043$-92Vol: $7,451
🏛️ POLITICS#52,261$148Vol: $6,956
💰 FINANCE#5,724$637Vol: $6,902
🌤️ WEATHER#215,166$-3Vol: $700

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$612
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$32,741
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
60
total markets
Trades
257B / 211S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~56d

Periods

#2
Today
$-14
Vol: $0
Week
$10
Vol: $0
Month
$-22
Vol: $900
All Time
$612
Vol: $32,741

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
50%
27W / 27L events
Realized PnL
$612
Win Rate
50%
27W / 27L
Profit Factor
3.09x
Avg Win
$75
Avg Loss
$-26

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,649 (2.6924823204690593% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?$990
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?$507
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June?$151
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?$95
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?$90
US government shutdown Saturday?$62
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?$38
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam?$31
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June?$16
Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of January 2026?$15

Top Losers

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-210
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-173
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-78
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?$-55
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of January?$-23
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June?$-21
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June?$-19
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?$-17
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina?$-14
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of January?$-9

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.215
Sortino
0.716
HHI
1028
Moderate
EV per $1
$0.407
Kelly %
28.9%
Half-Kelly
14.5%
Top-1 market
18.4%
Top-5 markets
61.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2.3
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
24.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.3h
between trades
Night Trading
25%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.90
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.9

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 1494s — normal for humanCV 2.89 — diverse sizes (human-like)25% night trades — never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clock2 trades/day — normal0.3 markets/day — normal61% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
9.3
Active DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)66.1%
Mid (20-55c)17.1%
High (>55c)16.7%

Sessions

#12
6/24/2026, 5:24:20 PM1 trades$4450 min
7/1/2026, 3:07:23 PM6 trades$4001 min
6/15/2026, 12:18:28 PM2 trades$3030 min
6/1/2026, 3:24:58 AM4 trades$3003 min
6/11/2026, 8:54:39 PM2 trades$3000 min
6/8/2026, 1:17:48 AM3 trades$2710 min
5/20/2026, 2:24:04 PM6 trades$2434 min
6/17/2026, 3:04:24 AM11 trades$2076 min
6/17/2026, 8:39:28 AM2 trades$2000 min
5/15/2026, 12:30:41 AM2 trades$1750 min
5/9/2026, 11:15:16 AM2 trades$1680 min
4/28/2026, 2:35:32 PM6 trades$1674 min
5/11/2026, 11:54:09 AM2 trades$1500 min
6/10/2026, 7:44:22 PM2 trades$1500 min
6/24/2026, 9:53:17 PM6 trades$1425 min
6/5/2026, 2:24:03 PM2 trades$1360 min
6/1/2026, 11:20:08 PM4 trades$1115 min
6/26/2026, 7:42:35 AM3 trades$1030 min
4/29/2026, 3:28:02 PM3 trades$1010 min
6/26/2026, 2:45:11 PM2 trades$1000 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-13
01-20
01-26
04-28
06-10
06-27

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 10 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
45.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 9.3/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L66.1 / M17.1 / H16.7