@esteban.farm.A1
#2,561,231800x96e7c5cd27ecfe5ce369dc1ef59772f892ee7a9c
~34d· 297 markets · 768 tradesVol: $5,5152026-08-04 22:58:48
SMART SCORE SYSTEM
Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.
Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.
80
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard
Score Components
49% (144/295)9.4/20
3.37x (win $1,069 / loss $317)15/15
Annualised Sharpe 3.47315/15
Sortino 44.23110/10
$+1.3536 per $1 invested10/10
HHI 234 (295 markets)10/10
11/34 profitable days (32%)0.6/10
Max DD 11% of peak ($88 / $841)10/10
Badges
4Contrarian
51% entries < $0.55
Cool Head
Max DD 11%
Win Streak
6 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
Categories
9₿ CRYPTO#1,271,633$-21Vol: $1,644
🌤️ WEATHER#250,151$-12Vol: $1,456
⚽ SPORTS#1,471,362$-21Vol: $816
🏛️ POLITICS#147,880$15Vol: $799
🎭 CULTURE#751,864$-38Vol: $581
💰 FINANCE#588,441$-16Vol: $126
📢 MENTIONS#102,115$-3Vol: $33
📈 ECONOMICS#106,747$1Vol: $14
💻 TECH#209,367$-3Vol: $5
Overview
#1Net PnL
$-102
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$5,515
Total Redeem
$198
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
297
total markets
Trades
436B / 332S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~34d
Periods
#2Today
$-0
Vol: $0
Month
$-0
Vol: $0
All Time
$-102
Vol: $5,515
PnL Analysis
#3Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology
Win Rate (events)
49%
144W / 151L events
Realized PnL
$-102
Win Rate
49%
144W / 151L
Profit Factor
3.37x
Avg Win
$7
Avg Loss
$-2
Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $855 (8.381311893322875% of PnL)
Top Winners
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET$712
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET$99
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by at least 20%?$44
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 29?$39
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$25
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?$18
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?$10
Will Trump visit China by May 31?$10
XRP Up or Down - May 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$6
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?$6
Top Losers
Will Trump say "Pope" or "Leo" this week? (April 20 - 26)$-12
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T?$-12
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?$-10
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 16?$-10
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?$-6
Will Google have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?$-6
US forces enter Iran by March 31?$-6
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 25, 2026?$-6
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?$-6
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?$-6
Risk Metrics
#4Sharpe
0.179
Sortino
2.312
HHI
102
Diversified
EV per $1
$1.276
Kelly %
32.8%
Half-Kelly
16.4%
Top-1 market
5.6%
Top-5 markets
14.9%
Behavior Analysis
#5Trades / Day
7.9
Moderate
Markets / Day
3.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.0h
between trades
Night Trading
15%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.66
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
10.4
Bot Detection
#615
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability
7 indicators analyzed
Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 86s — normal for humanCV 0.66 — diverse sizes (human-like)15% night trades — normal pattern24/24 hours — around the clock8 trades/day — normal3.1 markets/day — normal41% maker — normal mix
Timing Patterns
#7Peak hour: 14:00 UTC
0
4
8
12
16
20
DCA Analysis
#8Avg entries/market
2.68
Price Levels
#9Low (<20c)16.7%
Mid (20-55c)34.4%
High (>55c)48.9%
Sessions
#125/1/2026, 2:19:02 PM77 trades$39018 min
4/24/2026, 7:05:52 AM18 trades$655 min
5/1/2026, 3:18:54 PM33 trades$5319 min
4/16/2026, 1:56:54 PM21 trades$5015 min
3/27/2026, 9:38:31 PM50 trades$5030 min
4/20/2026, 6:45:36 PM15 trades$404 min
4/15/2026, 7:50:22 AM2 trades$360 min
5/1/2026, 3:46:00 PM29 trades$2810 min
5/15/2026, 3:41:43 PM4 trades$260 min
3/29/2026, 11:50:48 PM24 trades$2418 min
5/1/2026, 3:10:36 PM25 trades$222 min
4/25/2026, 4:11:18 AM6 trades$200 min
5/1/2026, 1:29:44 PM14 trades$198 min
4/24/2026, 7:37:30 AM8 trades$196 min
5/1/2026, 1:42:26 PM9 trades$171 min
4/20/2026, 6:39:34 PM2 trades$150 min
4/3/2026, 9:12:41 PM14 trades$141 min
3/29/2026, 11:17:04 PM12 trades$126 min
4/24/2026, 5:28:34 PM5 trades$120 min
4/3/2026, 1:36:59 PM12 trades$115 min
Equity Curve
#13Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-21
03-30
04-11
04-19
04-25
05-03
05-12
Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)
Max drawdown: 70 days (not recovered)
Profile
#14Specialization
MIXED
14% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
43.2% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.68/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L16.7 / M34.4 / H48.9