HyperboreanBryanCaplanFan

@Hyperbor…nFan

#2,835,08240

0x9dd483126ebe16f2d853d49060040b556a95a038

~132d· 279 markets · 716 tradesVol: $41,1982026-08-05 17:25:02
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

40
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

86% (233/270)20/20
0.60x (win $393 / loss $651)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -1.0590/15
Sortino -1.0700/10
$-0.0100 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 124 (270 markets)10/10
88/106 profitable days (83%)10/10
Max DD 267% of peak ($553 / $207)0/10

Badges

4
Sniper
Win rate 86%
Consistent
88/106 profitable days
Win Streak
25 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

7
🏛️ POLITICS#65,831$95Vol: $30,232
📢 MENTIONS#173,815$-559Vol: $7,518
🎭 CULTURE#62,698$12Vol: $2,156
SPORTS#403,766$2Vol: $603
📈 ECONOMICS#78,094$3Vol: $459
CRYPTO#384,865$2Vol: $204
💻 TECH#50,308$1Vol: $26

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-445
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$41,198
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
279
total markets
Trades
466B / 250S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~132d

Periods

#2
Today
$-3
Vol: $0
Week
$-24
Vol: $100
Month
$-20
Vol: $961
All Time
$-445
Vol: $41,198

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
86%
233W / 37L events
Realized PnL
$-445
Win Rate
86%
233W / 37L
Profit Factor
0.6x
Avg Win
$2
Avg Loss
$-20

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $74 (0.16635198921105868% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.5 and 41.9 on February 6, 2026?$34
Will Russia enter Kurylivka by February 28?$23
Will Trump say "Beer" this week?$17
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 18, 2026?$16
Will Trump say "Sacrifice" this week?$14
Trump approval Up or Down this week?$10
Will Trump say "Memory" this week?$10
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 40.5 on February 13, 2026?$10
Will Trump's approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on January 30, 2026?$9
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025?$9

Top Losers

Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)$-441
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?$-106
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 41.0 on March 13, 2026?$-19
Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during the America Business Forum on November 5?$-17
Will all of Trump's children attend the State of the Union?$-11
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in May?$-10
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by December 31? $-6
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on February 13, 2026?$-5
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 22, 2026?$-4
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?$-4

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.055
Sortino
-0.024
HHI
120
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.010
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
2.3%
Top-5 markets
11.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1.7
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
8:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.7h
between trades
Night Trading
17%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.85
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.7

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 194s — normal for humanCV 1.85 — diverse sizes (human-like)17% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock2 trades/day — normal0.6 markets/day — normal9% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 8:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.59
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)2.1%
Mid (20-55c)4.5%
High (>55c)93.3%

Sessions

#12
2/21/2026, 4:04:56 AM2 trades$1,2150 min
1/31/2026, 4:01:38 PM2 trades$9930 min
7/4/2026, 3:08:41 AM12 trades$8001 min
3/7/2026, 4:06:13 AM5 trades$7124 min
2/7/2026, 5:05:01 AM4 trades$7031 min
1/31/2026, 5:05:50 AM14 trades$66611 min
2/16/2026, 7:36:03 AM1 trades$6050 min
2/19/2026, 9:25:16 AM1 trades$5910 min
2/25/2026, 9:07:16 AM5 trades$5858 min
3/4/2026, 7:58:51 AM3 trades$5642 min
2/10/2026, 12:57:47 AM1 trades$5620 min
1/17/2026, 6:48:16 AM14 trades$55615 min
2/23/2026, 4:02:34 AM4 trades$5441 min
2/23/2026, 2:42:18 PM4 trades$5296 min
2/9/2026, 7:41:01 AM1 trades$5280 min
12/12/2025, 8:20:05 PM2 trades$5221 min
2/21/2026, 7:01:34 PM3 trades$5153 min
2/16/2026, 4:07:41 AM1 trades$5010 min
2/14/2026, 7:06:45 PM1 trades$5000 min
2/18/2026, 9:02:10 AM4 trades$4984 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
05-26
11-29
12-29
01-23
02-16
03-09
07-11

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 87 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
34.9% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.59/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L2.1 / M4.5 / H93.3