Asphalt

@Asphalt

#192,7197

0xb78b4b8d339e21c6e2ef0e76d5d382103bf0c9ee

~26d· 36 markets · 260 tradesVol: $18,7952026-08-04 22:22:58
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

7
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

35% (12/34)2.6/20
0.38x (win $512 / loss $1,353)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -5.0650/15
Sortino -4.9770/10
$-0.1699 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 1660 (34 markets)4.2/10
4/17 profitable days (24%)0/10
Max DD 0% of peak ($978 / $0)0/10

Badges

2
Profitable
PnL $+158
Lottery Player
37% entries < $0.20

Categories

8
🏛️ POLITICS#22,119$720Vol: $10,339
₿ CRYPTO#1,425,353$-68Vol: $2,335
📈 ECONOMICS#669,303$-209Vol: $2,076
💻 TECH#22,651$6Vol: $1,743
🎭 CULTURE#504,462$-1Vol: $1,206
🌤️ WEATHER#271,188$-36Vol: $731
💰 FINANCE#644,500$-250Vol: $321
⚽ SPORTS#1,153,646$-4Vol: $42

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$158
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$18,795
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
36
total markets
Trades
84B / 176S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~26d

Periods

#2
Today
$97
Vol: $0
Week
$74
Vol: $453
Month
$86
Vol: $486
All Time
$158
Vol: $18,795

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
35%
12W / 22L events
Realized PnL
$158
Win Rate
35%
12W / 22L
Profit Factor
0.38x
Avg Win
$43
Avg Loss
$-71

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $451 (2.8549927275026876% of PnL)

Top Winners

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?$275
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$140
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 27?$36
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?$29
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in May?$8
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 24?$7
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 26?$5
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 24?$5
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 24?$3
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on April 25?$2

Top Losers

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$-1,050
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 27?$-74
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?$-52
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?$-32
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?$-30
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May?$-23
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 27?$-20
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 25?$-18
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 6-12?$-10
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on April 25?$-10

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.257
Sortino
-0.208
HHI
1962
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.162
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
30.7%
Top-5 markets
87%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
19/24
Extended
Peak Hour
23:00 UTC
Median Gap
6.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.0h
between trades
Night Trading
8%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.03
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
5.1

Bot Detection

#6
5
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 382s — normal for humanCV 2.03 — diverse sizes (human-like)8% night trades — normal pattern19/24 hours — extended activity0 trades/day — normal0.1 markets/day — normal27% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 23:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
8.18
Active DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)36.9%
Mid (20-55c)10.7%
High (>55c)52.4%

Sessions

#12
7/29/2026, 11:33:39 PM11 trades$1,6202 min
7/25/2026, 9:45:15 PM9 trades$1,2432 min
7/28/2026, 9:58:46 AM5 trades$8370 min
7/29/2026, 8:51:47 PM5 trades$6660 min
7/28/2026, 9:31:53 AM7 trades$6590 min
7/25/2026, 10:07:15 PM8 trades$5980 min
7/22/2026, 9:06:39 PM5 trades$5060 min
7/23/2026, 10:53:07 PM4 trades$4700 min
8/2/2026, 5:30:14 PM4 trades$4530 min
7/30/2026, 7:47:38 AM15 trades$4230 min
7/9/2026, 5:52:41 PM2 trades$4080 min
7/17/2026, 12:26:49 PM3 trades$4020 min
4/28/2026, 2:16:56 PM11 trades$3471 min
4/29/2026, 7:06:14 PM2 trades$3350 min
4/29/2026, 5:30:34 PM13 trades$3321 min
7/7/2026, 11:46:55 PM5 trades$2690 min
7/22/2026, 8:51:04 PM2 trades$2640 min
7/30/2026, 10:27:50 AM11 trades$2340 min
4/26/2026, 10:35:04 PM7 trades$1962 min
7/30/2026, 12:03:57 PM5 trades$1640 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-25
03-09
05-23
04-25
04-27
07-07
07-17
07-28
08-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
41.2% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
67.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 8.18/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L36.9 / M10.7 / H52.4