thestupidmoney

@thestupidmoney

#1,72034

0xbde579ead903b9cf5c3fc4be5a0c515464769c38

~608d· 3496 markets · 115914 tradesVol: $57,115,2462026-08-04 15:17:57
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

34
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

61% (2142/3485)15.7/20
0.83x (win $931,681 / loss $1,119,211)0.4/15
Annualised Sharpe -0.4160/15
Sortino -0.4570/10
$-0.0140 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 29 (3485 markets)10/10
300/500 profitable days (60%)7.5/10
Max DD 269% of peak ($616,444 / $229,064)0/10

Badges

9
Sniper
Win rate 61%
Profitable
PnL $+112,712
Contrarian
62% entries < $0.55
DCA Master
Avg 33.7 entries/market
Whale
$13,352,183 invested
High Roller
$18,701/day
Win Streak
13 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
🏗️Market Maker
98% maker orders

Categories

8
SPORTS#722$114,926Vol: $56,898,393
🏛️ POLITICS#1,628,744$-2,675Vol: $77,350
🎭 CULTURE#6,522$690Vol: $69,965
CRYPTO#1,550,526$-245Vol: $46,971
📈 ECONOMICS#38,136$12Vol: $12,036
📢 MENTIONS#9,033$50Vol: $8,032
💰 FINANCE#611,891$-37Vol: $2,300
💻 TECH#227,708$-10Vol: $200

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$112,712
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$57,115,246
Total Redeem
$2,005
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
3496
total markets
Trades
65502B / 50412S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~608d

Periods

#2
Today
$14
Vol: $0
Week
$9
Vol: $6
Month
$10
Vol: $6
All Time
$112,712
Vol: $57,115,246

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
61%
2142W / 1343L events
Realized PnL
$112,712
Win Rate
61%
2142W / 1343L
Profit Factor
0.83x
Avg Win
$435
Avg Loss
$-899

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $178,999 (1.5881162814611334% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?$71,418
Hawks vs. Knicks$54,070
Lakers vs. Rockets$53,511
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?$52,923
Will England win on 2026-06-23?$50,099
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?$39,979
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?$36,002
Raptors vs. Cavaliers$26,174
Cavaliers vs. Raptors$24,074
Pistons vs. Magic$24,000

Top Losers

Knicks vs. Spurs$-293,299
Spurs vs. Knicks$-164,400
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?$-81,300
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?$-65,674
Spurs vs. Knicks$-51,495
Spurs vs. Clippers$-37,724
Pistons vs. Cavaliers$-34,800
Pistons vs. Magic$-26,065
Celtics vs. 76ers$-24,942
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?$-22,430

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.022
Sortino
-0.015
HHI
43
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.014
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
2.2%
Top-5 markets
7.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
162.3
Very active
Markets / Day
4.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
22:00 UTC
Median Gap
46s
between trades
Avg Gap
8.4m
between trades
Night Trading
25%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.13
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
43 min
Avg Trades / Session
135.7

Bot Detection

#6
65
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 46s — normal for humanCV 6.13 — diverse sizes (human-like)25% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock162 trades/day — automation4.9 markets/day — normal98% maker — systematic market making

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 22:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
33.69
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)9.9%
Mid (20-55c)52.5%
High (>55c)37.6%

Sessions

#12
4/6/2026, 6:57:25 PM789 trades$144,865236 min
10/12/2025, 11:53:32 AM410 trades$133,493192 min
2/7/2026, 10:12:51 PM81 trades$126,30052 min
3/19/2026, 11:25:51 PM229 trades$112,77252 min
4/5/2026, 8:02:37 PM438 trades$105,939183 min
3/26/2026, 9:18:09 PM241 trades$103,57771 min
1/31/2026, 11:41:38 PM119 trades$101,73322 min
10/26/2025, 4:20:29 PM116 trades$99,30133 min
1/4/2026, 5:11:03 PM10 trades$99,0645 min
9/28/2025, 7:57:45 PM70 trades$95,34130 min
3/21/2026, 11:05:27 PM269 trades$94,03840 min
1/11/2026, 12:06:56 AM73 trades$92,67845 min
6/26/2026, 4:57:34 PM96 trades$87,3757 min
6/22/2026, 12:23:01 AM13 trades$83,7007 min
3/29/2026, 9:05:26 PM198 trades$79,24057 min
1/17/2026, 6:13:10 PM240 trades$75,37370 min
2/20/2026, 2:53:06 AM151 trades$74,54940 min
3/27/2026, 10:00:17 PM640 trades$73,94194 min
6/14/2026, 12:02:34 AM96 trades$73,60010 min
4/2/2026, 8:04:13 PM40 trades$71,6934 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-23
03-16
06-08
09-01
11-28
02-20
06-26

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 49 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
43.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 33.69/mkt
Entry Bias
MIXED
L9.9 / M52.5 / H37.6