whattthesigma

@whattthesigma

#319,28568

0xcbcbe8f3896adf1a77bca7cce576802fb8559497

~125d· 399 markets · 897 tradesVol: $5,821 @sigmapengu2026-08-04 22:23:34
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

68
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

47% (171/364)8.5/20
1.22x (win $1,041 / loss $856)5.2/15
Annualised Sharpe 2.54715/15
Sortino 4.83210/10
$+0.1349 per $1 invested6.7/10
HHI 99 (364 markets)10/10
59/107 profitable days (55%)6.3/10
Max DD 40% of peak ($79 / $199)6/10

Badges

3
Profitable
PnL $+48
Contrarian
57% entries < $0.55
Win Streak
5 wins in a row

Categories

8
SPORTS#133,031$82Vol: $4,383
🏛️ POLITICS#932,714$-1Vol: $423
🎭 CULTURE#651,384$-5Vol: $399
📈 ECONOMICS#581,779$-6Vol: $187
CRYPTO#279,756$6Vol: $137
📢 MENTIONS#54,349$0Vol: $85
🌤️ WEATHER#250,803$-12Vol: $74
💰 FINANCE#138,827$1Vol: $44

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$48
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$5,821
Total Redeem
$6
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
399
total markets
Trades
460B / 437S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~125d

Periods

#2
Today
$4
Vol: $38
Week
$44
Vol: $167
Month
$51
Vol: $230
All Time
$48
Vol: $5,821

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
47%
171W / 193L events
Realized PnL
$48
Win Rate
47%
171W / 193L
Profit Factor
1.22x
Avg Win
$6
Avg Loss
$-6

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $150 (3.0956323742496377% of PnL)

Top Winners

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$64
Spread: Spain (-2.5)$49
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?$37
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell$36
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during trophy presentation?$22
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez$22
Iasi Open: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Paula Badosa$21
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5$20
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5$20
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)$19

Top Losers

Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?$-40
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5$-40
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-23
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)$-20
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet$-20
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova$-20
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?$-20
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?$-20
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert$-20
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 1 - 7?$-20

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.133
Sortino
0.203
HHI
117
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.128
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
7.3%
Top-5 markets
16%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
4.2
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.9
Active Hours
19/24
Extended
Peak Hour
10:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
3.2h
between trades
Night Trading
0%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.72
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
5 min
Avg Trades / Session
10.6

Bot Detection

#6
5
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 79s — normal for humanCV 1.72 — diverse sizes (human-like)0% night trades — normal pattern19/24 hours — extended activity4 trades/day — normal1.9 markets/day — normal42% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 10:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.59
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)5.4%
Mid (20-55c)51.7%
High (>55c)42.8%

Sessions

#12
6/15/2026, 10:08:45 AM21 trades$17715 min
6/18/2026, 10:28:04 AM32 trades$16514 min
6/16/2026, 11:32:43 AM17 trades$1165 min
6/17/2026, 10:17:04 AM20 trades$1149 min
6/27/2026, 10:57:31 AM21 trades$10212 min
2/18/2026, 1:26:56 PM5 trades$1006 min
2/4/2026, 9:01:35 PM1 trades$1000 min
6/24/2026, 10:08:34 AM20 trades$816 min
6/20/2026, 7:34:01 PM14 trades$815 min
6/23/2026, 12:25:50 PM21 trades$7814 min
6/20/2026, 10:45:47 AM12 trades$685 min
6/18/2026, 6:28:38 PM18 trades$6710 min
6/21/2026, 1:31:14 PM10 trades$584 min
7/16/2026, 4:39:10 PM9 trades$544 min
6/17/2026, 7:21:43 PM11 trades$5110 min
7/20/2026, 12:09:33 PM10 trades$404 min
6/15/2026, 6:26:39 PM8 trades$396 min
6/28/2026, 10:34:04 AM10 trades$379 min
6/26/2026, 12:32:25 PM6 trades$325 min
7/8/2026, 3:15:29 PM9 trades$319 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-31
03-07
05-06
05-28
06-16
07-04
07-29

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 21 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
48.7% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.59/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L5.4 / M51.7 / H42.8