@AlfredTheShiller
#4,725380xcd6be6693e2bc11150d397caa9e6f7c6744b68f5
~667d· 1299 markets · 13357 tradesVol: $3,985,8532026-08-05 03:23:02
SMART SCORE SYSTEM
Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.
Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.
38
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard
Score Components
57% (710/1238)13.7/20
1.07x (win $269,853 / loss $252,532)3.4/15
Annualised Sharpe 0.1242.3/15
Sortino 0.1651.7/10
$+0.0237 per $1 invested1.2/10
HHI 231 (1238 markets)10/10
226/437 profitable days (52%)5.4/10
Max DD 106% of peak ($100,999 / $95,248)0/10
Badges
7Profitable
PnL $+36,256
Lottery Player
49% entries < $0.20
DCA Master
Avg 11.3 entries/market
Whale
$730,735 invested
Win Streak
9 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
🏗️Market Maker
82% maker orders
Categories
9🏛️ POLITICS#1,165$42,952Vol: $1,870,917
⚽ SPORTS#20,971$2,086Vol: $826,819
📈 ECONOMICS#682,911$-10,713Vol: $535,129
₿ CRYPTO#1,674,754$-13,250Vol: $304,232
💰 FINANCE#1,951$2,533Vol: $98,061
📢 MENTIONS#177$10,526Vol: $95,510
🎭 CULTURE#2,187$3,230Vol: $62,516
💻 TECH#257,910$-1,227Vol: $40,811
🌤️ WEATHER#4,122$267Vol: $17,681
Overview
#1Net PnL
$36,256
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$3,985,853
Total Redeem
$9,578
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
1299
total markets
Trades
9118B / 4239S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~667d
Periods
#2Today
$-6
Vol: $0
Week
$-128
Vol: $3,065
Month
$168
Vol: $3,065
All Time
$36,256
Vol: $3,985,853
PnL Analysis
#3Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology
Win Rate (events)
57%
710W / 528L events
Realized PnL
$36,256
Win Rate
57%
710W / 528L
Profit Factor
1.07x
Avg Win
$380
Avg Loss
$-487
Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $118,616 (3.271597082648278% of PnL)
Top Winners
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$74,931
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$26,610
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$17,075
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$12,564
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$8,757
Will Trump say "Friend of Mine" during WEF Address on January 21?$6,167
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?$4,798
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$4,434
Will Trump shake hands with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the World Economic Forum?$4,173
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?$3,896
Top Losers
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$-86,287
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$-32,510
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$-9,841
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$-8,922
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?$-8,323
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$-7,723
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$-6,975
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$-6,506
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?$-4,518
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?$-3,745
Risk Metrics
#4Sharpe
0.006
Sortino
0.006
HHI
211
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.021
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
9.6%
Top-5 markets
24.8%
Behavior Analysis
#5Trades / Day
18.0
Active
Markets / Day
1.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
12:00 UTC
Median Gap
7.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.2h
between trades
Night Trading
13%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.96
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
12.4
Bot Detection
#625
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability
7 indicators analyzed
Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 421s — normal for humanCV 2.96 — diverse sizes (human-like)13% night trades — normal pattern24/24 hours — around the clock18 trades/day — very active1.7 markets/day — normal82% maker — frequent liquidity provider
Timing Patterns
#7Peak hour: 12:00 UTC
0
4
8
12
16
20
DCA Analysis
#8Avg entries/market
11.25
Price Levels
#9Low (<20c)48.7%
Mid (20-55c)20.3%
High (>55c)31%
Sessions
#126/1/2026, 1:12:12 PM4 trades$26,4402 min
6/14/2026, 9:29:28 PM60 trades$17,72215 min
4/28/2026, 1:50:30 PM20 trades$16,66020 min
2/28/2026, 6:17:11 AM28 trades$16,53520 min
6/3/2026, 10:11:02 AM13 trades$13,5440 min
6/14/2026, 9:51:25 PM13 trades$12,3555 min
1/30/2026, 12:48:34 PM3 trades$11,8052 min
5/6/2026, 8:48:26 AM50 trades$11,7153 min
7/14/2026, 12:31:31 PM16 trades$10,0100 min
6/11/2026, 12:22:43 PM23 trades$9,5914 min
1/30/2026, 11:47:24 AM12 trades$9,1746 min
6/10/2026, 5:35:04 PM10 trades$9,0334 min
4/28/2026, 2:56:06 PM19 trades$8,7604 min
3/23/2026, 11:07:09 AM11 trades$7,90912 min
5/7/2026, 5:28:01 PM19 trades$7,8656 min
6/22/2026, 11:39:47 AM6 trades$6,4240 min
5/7/2026, 6:52:17 PM2 trades$6,3490 min
6/1/2026, 5:30:53 PM18 trades$5,6891 min
2/25/2026, 3:32:36 AM29 trades$5,41823 min
3/8/2026, 8:40:55 PM22 trades$5,31413 min
Equity Curve
#13Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
07-24
12-11
04-10
09-21
12-23
03-22
07-11
Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)
Max drawdown: 17 days (not recovered)
Profile
#14Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
31.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 11.25/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L48.7 / M20.3 / H31