@ostrygracz

#2,894,82931

0xecf60c9c9b55fd8ec4397878a9cc9323edb88145

~171d· 321 markets · 620 tradesVol: $197,2892026-08-04 20:21:24
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

31
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

59% (186/316)14.4/20
0.77x (win $4,414 / loss $5,751)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -1.4870/15
Sortino -1.6110/10
$-0.0140 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 125 (316 markets)10/10
78/143 profitable days (55%)6.1/10
Max DD 5793% of peak ($1,364 / $24)0/10

Badges

3
Whale
$95,692 invested
Win Streak
9 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

9
₿ CRYPTO#67,403$188Vol: $62,309
🏛️ POLITICS#1,619,874$-1,335Vol: $53,826
⚽ SPORTS#98,959$154Vol: $35,719
📈 ECONOMICS#16,091$63Vol: $17,816
💰 FINANCE#8,468$371Vol: $14,127
📢 MENTIONS#166,663$-137Vol: $5,293
🎭 CULTURE#774,872$-80Vol: $4,051
💻 TECH#225,506$-10Vol: $3,756
🌤️ WEATHER#81,613$0Vol: $100

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-739
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$197,289
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
321
total markets
Trades
406B / 214S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~171d

Periods

#2
Today
$15
Vol: $500
Week
$14
Vol: $500
Month
$21
Vol: $500
All Time
$-739
Vol: $197,289

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
59%
186W / 130L events
Realized PnL
$-739
Win Rate
59%
186W / 130L
Profit Factor
0.77x
Avg Win
$24
Avg Loss
$-46

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $594 (0.8032804633789855% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by October 31?$221
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$205
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18?$168
Will Donald Trump say "dictator" at least three times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?$162
Over $70M committed to the Gensyn public sale?$148
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? $141
Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference?$134
Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 31?$107
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?$92
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?$91

Top Losers

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$-923
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?$-350
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?$-288
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during Japan troop visit on October 28?$-216
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$-200
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November?$-170
Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31?$-150
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?$-150
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during WEF Address on January 21?$-131
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?$-128

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.078
Sortino
-0.060
HHI
113
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.014
Kelly %
1.4%
Half-Kelly
0.7%
Top-1 market
3.1%
Top-5 markets
12.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1.0
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
7.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
3.0h
between trades
Night Trading
5%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.69
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.4

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 470s — normal for humanCV 1.69 — diverse sizes (human-like)5% night trades — normal pattern24/24 hours — around the clock1 trades/day — normal0.5 markets/day — normal30% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.97
Single entry

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)8.1%
Mid (20-55c)28.6%
High (>55c)63.3%

Sessions

#12
12/11/2024, 10:20:43 PM3 trades$3,1512 min
3/10/2025, 11:47:39 AM2 trades$3,0314 min
3/12/2025, 9:35:11 PM7 trades$3,0284 min
2/1/2025, 6:04:54 PM2 trades$3,0111 min
2/1/2025, 9:00:01 PM2 trades$3,0081 min
2/13/2025, 9:31:46 PM2 trades$3,0081 min
2/1/2025, 10:10:40 PM2 trades$3,0052 min
2/14/2025, 3:28:42 PM3 trades$3,0045 min
2/21/2025, 3:32:54 PM2 trades$3,0033 min
2/2/2025, 8:17:50 PM2 trades$3,0024 min
2/4/2025, 9:15:23 PM6 trades$2,9997 min
2/10/2025, 8:49:58 PM2 trades$2,9951 min
1/3/2025, 8:55:03 PM2 trades$2,9860 min
1/27/2025, 8:44:24 PM2 trades$2,9813 min
1/26/2025, 10:28:41 PM2 trades$2,9711 min
1/23/2025, 11:27:35 AM2 trades$2,9201 min
3/9/2025, 1:58:39 AM2 trades$2,8932 min
3/17/2025, 10:05:25 PM7 trades$2,8254 min
2/19/2025, 9:24:33 PM2 trades$2,7261 min
12/1/2024, 2:51:48 PM5 trades$2,6196 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-01
02-11
07-10
09-29
12-03
01-15
04-28

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 176 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
34.5% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.97/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L8.1 / M28.6 / H63.3