nostramario

@nostramario

#1,757,49235

0xf070349b40fb7137a2112eb14c8cac959788339f

~15d· 47 markets · 62 tradesVol: $1662026-08-04 18:17:30
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

35
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

73% (33/45)20/20
0.60x (win $18 / loss $31)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -4.1910/15
Sortino -4.4830/10
$-0.1558 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 779 (45 markets)8.6/10
7/13 profitable days (54%)6/10
Max DD 254% of peak ($21 / $8)0/10

Badges

2
Sniper
Win rate 73%
Win Streak
8 wins in a row

Categories

6
🏛️ POLITICS#1,241,401$-8Vol: $142
💻 TECH#179,801$-1Vol: $10
📈 ECONOMICS#442,277$-1Vol: $6
🎭 CULTURE#147,481$1Vol: $4
₿ CRYPTO#393,336$1Vol: $2
📢 MENTIONS#81,880$-1Vol: $2

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-8
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$166
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
47
total markets
Trades
53B / 9S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~15d

Periods

#2
Today
$-2
Vol: $0
Week
$-2
Vol: $0
Month
$-2
Vol: $0
All Time
$-8
Vol: $166

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
73%
33W / 12L events
Realized PnL
$-8
Win Rate
73%
33W / 12L
Profit Factor
0.6x
Avg Win
$1
Avg Loss
$-3

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $9 (1.1637717121588087% of PnL)

Top Winners

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?$6
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?$2
Trump approval Up or Down this week?$1
Will GameStop buy more Bitcoin before August?$1
Will "Superman" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80–89?$1
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before August?$1
Bondi, Bongino or Patel out by July 18th?$1
Will Elon register the America Party in July?$0
Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?$0
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be greater than 2%?$0

Top Losers

Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?$-11
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?$-10
Will Trump release more Epstein files before August?$-1
Trump x Zelenskyy talk before July?$-1
Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during his 4th of July remarks?$-1
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by July 15?$-1
Trump x Zelenskyy talk before August?$-1
Trump x Xi Jinping talk before August?$-1
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?$-1
Will OpenAI release an open source model before September?$-1

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.211
Sortino
-0.196
HHI
321
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.186
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
11.2%
Top-5 markets
32.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.2
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
11/24
Normal
Peak Hour
22:00 UTC
Median Gap
42s
between trades
Avg Gap
1.8h
between trades
Night Trading
0%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.97
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
20
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.1

Bot Detection

#6
0
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 42s — normal for humanCV 0.97 — diverse sizes (human-like)0% night trades — normal pattern11/24 hours — normal schedule0 trades/day — normal0.1 markets/day — normal13% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 22:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.2
Single entry

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)7.5%
Mid (20-55c)20.8%
High (>55c)71.7%

Sessions

#12
4/30/2026, 8:39:36 PM10 trades$353 min
6/23/2026, 7:54:43 PM6 trades$180 min
6/24/2025, 10:33:41 PM9 trades$94 min
7/22/2025, 6:38:16 PM1 trades$80 min
7/8/2025, 3:55:35 PM5 trades$52 min
6/24/2025, 10:16:25 PM4 trades$47 min
6/24/2025, 10:06:05 PM3 trades$34 min
6/25/2025, 2:21:23 PM3 trades$32 min
7/2/2025, 2:17:09 PM3 trades$31 min
7/11/2025, 10:06:00 AM3 trades$31 min
6/30/2025, 5:20:30 PM1 trades$20 min
6/30/2025, 4:13:58 PM2 trades$21 min
6/30/2025, 7:48:10 PM2 trades$20 min
7/1/2025, 9:47:01 PM2 trades$21 min
7/3/2025, 2:15:11 PM2 trades$20 min
7/18/2025, 4:07:48 PM2 trades$20 min
6/24/2025, 9:55:39 PM1 trades$10 min
6/26/2025, 7:53:47 PM1 trades$10 min
6/27/2025, 11:31:03 AM1 trades$10 min
7/9/2025, 6:04:06 PM1 trades$10 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
06-24
06-30
07-02
07-08
07-11
07-22
06-23

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 336 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
14.5% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.2/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L7.5 / M20.8 / H71.7