wintermute

@wintermute

#100,99311

0xf239d3d01e1e9a1d17f455f27feffbdaa8c13627

~80d· 149 markets · 595 tradesVol: $176,203 @onchaintrace2026-08-04 23:02:54
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

11
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

22% (30/135)0/20
0.93x (win $4,470 / loss $4,814)1.6/15
Annualised Sharpe -0.3200/15
Sortino -0.7730/10
$-0.0199 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 720 (135 markets)8.9/10
14/56 profitable days (25%)0/10
Max DD 113% of peak ($3,008 / $2,664)0/10

Badges

2
Profitable
PnL $+668
Lottery Player
41% entries < $0.20

Categories

7
CRYPTO#26,726$1,270Vol: $119,944
🎭 CULTURE#770,343$-67Vol: $15,533
SPORTS#1,748,752$-225Vol: $12,871
💰 FINANCE#595,940$-20Vol: $10,115
🏛️ POLITICS#1,558,746$-184Vol: $5,272
🌤️ WEATHER#229,802$-5Vol: $2,211
📢 MENTIONS#131,787$-11Vol: $314

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$668
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$176,203
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
149
total markets
Trades
316B / 279S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~80d

Periods

#2
Today
$-1
Vol: $0
Week
$-2
Vol: $0
Month
$-5
Vol: $0
All Time
$668
Vol: $176,203

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
22%
30W / 105L events
Realized PnL
$668
Win Rate
22%
30W / 105L
Profit Factor
0.93x
Avg Win
$149
Avg Loss
$-49

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $3,644 (5.4516944714595645% of PnL)

Top Winners

Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale?$1,567
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?$1,301
Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?$775
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?$177
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?$85
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch?$79
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?$70
Over $100M committed to the Gensyn public sale?$58
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?$44
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?$33

Top Losers

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-713
Over $10M committed to the Trove public sale?$-346
Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale?$-288
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?$-234
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-200
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? $-180
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?$-167
Over $15M committed to the Gensyn public sale?$-165
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?$-149
Will Almanak FDV above $80M one day after launch?$-100

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.017
Sortino
-0.042
HHI
579
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.019
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
13.9%
Top-5 markets
45.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.9
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.2
Active Hours
19/24
Extended
Peak Hour
9:00 UTC
Median Gap
17.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.9h
between trades
Night Trading
1%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.04
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.6

Bot Detection

#6
5
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 1060s — normal for humanCV 2.03 — diverse sizes (human-like)1% night trades — normal pattern19/24 hours — extended activity1 trades/day — normal0.2 markets/day — normal15% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 9:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
4.19
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)40.8%
Mid (20-55c)38%
High (>55c)21.2%

Sessions

#12
5/14/2026, 5:48:03 PM6 trades$10,0200 min
7/7/2026, 4:38:52 PM4 trades$1,4551 min
12/13/2025, 9:52:39 AM1 trades$1,4000 min
12/6/2025, 1:35:53 PM1 trades$1,0660 min
7/15/2026, 9:14:37 PM2 trades$1,0230 min
12/9/2025, 9:03:43 AM1 trades$1,0000 min
12/6/2025, 9:58:35 AM3 trades$8374 min
12/13/2025, 1:58:51 PM2 trades$8020 min
12/17/2025, 1:56:26 PM3 trades$7903 min
7/16/2026, 10:50:23 AM10 trades$6022 min
12/6/2025, 12:40:53 PM4 trades$5993 min
6/25/2026, 9:41:32 AM17 trades$5905 min
12/19/2025, 8:45:24 AM5 trades$5356 min
5/14/2026, 2:28:22 PM38 trades$5332 min
5/10/2026, 7:15:07 AM11 trades$5281 min
12/10/2025, 8:29:18 PM1 trades$5000 min
12/12/2025, 10:06:02 AM1 trades$4540 min
12/20/2025, 6:34:20 AM2 trades$4340 min
5/2/2026, 9:46:54 AM8 trades$4190 min
4/29/2026, 7:52:42 AM9 trades$4170 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
10-16
12-06
12-18
01-07
03-05
05-02
07-15

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 208 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
46.9% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.19/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L40.8 / M38 / H21.2