MakingTheMarket

@MakingTheMarket

#3,049,71323

0xfbad359b4e00f3d6909a706b7c23d9c694729e4b

~95d· 191 markets · 2939 tradesVol: $970,776 @MatiasScalbi2026-08-04 23:35:36
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

23
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

48% (80/166)9.1/20
0.57x (win $15,479 / loss $27,185)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -2.4570/15
Sortino -2.5810/10
$-0.0690 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 578 (166 markets)9.6/10
32/70 profitable days (46%)3.9/10
Max DD 987520% of peak ($14,220 / $1)0/10

Badges

5
DCA Master
Avg 22.7 entries/market
Whale
$169,728 invested
Win Streak
5 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
🏗️Market Maker
79% maker orders

Categories

8
🏛️ POLITICS#1,634,750$-4,351Vol: $664,205
SPORTS#1,828,301$-1,022Vol: $183,080
📈 ECONOMICS#674,856$-424Vol: $68,373
🎭 CULTURE#796,587$-223Vol: $28,242
💰 FINANCE#636,685$-127Vol: $15,703
CRYPTO#1,503,542$-135Vol: $3,450
🌤️ WEATHER#258,775$-18Vol: $3,033
💻 TECH#233,178$-16Vol: $690

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-6,381
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$970,776
Total Redeem
$50
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
191
total markets
Trades
1766B / 1173S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~95d

Periods

#2
Today
$5
Vol: $0
Week
$3
Vol: $0
Month
$9
Vol: $0
All Time
$-6,381
Vol: $970,776

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
48%
80W / 86L events
Realized PnL
$-6,381
Win Rate
48%
80W / 86L
Profit Factor
0.57x
Avg Win
$193
Avg Loss
$-353

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $5,028 (0.7879511577469379% of PnL)

Top Winners

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$1,791
Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5?$1,619
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$1,618
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?$1,502
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$1,224
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$1,200
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?$903
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 1?$844
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)$812
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?$564

Top Losers

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?$-10,267
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?$-3,345
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5$-2,250
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?$-1,356
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$-1,214
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score$-1,080
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?$-1,045
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-05?$-1,035
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$-714
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5$-585

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.128
Sortino
-0.104
HHI
1185
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.049
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
16.5%
Top-5 markets
66.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
11.5
Active
Markets / Day
0.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
48.3m
between trades
Night Trading
25%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.67
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
5 min
Avg Trades / Session
11.1

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 220s — normal for humanCV 3.67 — diverse sizes (human-like)25% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock11 trades/day — very active0.7 markets/day — normal79% maker — frequent liquidity provider

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
22.66
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)18.5%
Mid (20-55c)31.1%
High (>55c)50.4%

Sessions

#12
4/7/2026, 12:19:41 PM72 trades$14,5641 min
4/8/2026, 4:02:11 PM10 trades$12,2530 min
4/8/2026, 2:35:45 AM6 trades$12,0001 min
4/3/2026, 3:17:57 PM10 trades$11,4476 min
3/29/2026, 7:37:52 PM15 trades$8,80911 min
4/7/2026, 1:46:19 PM13 trades$6,9797 min
3/31/2026, 10:35:29 PM42 trades$6,8197 min
4/8/2026, 3:18:19 PM4 trades$6,4601 min
4/1/2026, 5:48:07 PM15 trades$6,2883 min
4/6/2026, 6:58:19 PM5 trades$5,8175 min
4/8/2026, 11:57:51 AM19 trades$5,5430 min
3/31/2026, 6:48:57 PM17 trades$3,9257 min
4/8/2026, 2:21:05 AM26 trades$3,9085 min
4/2/2026, 5:04:11 AM12 trades$3,7972 min
3/29/2026, 2:50:24 PM4 trades$3,7884 min
3/27/2026, 5:55:01 PM4 trades$3,5971 min
4/7/2026, 1:31:11 PM8 trades$3,4608 min
4/7/2026, 4:52:55 PM3 trades$3,3854 min
3/29/2026, 11:53:46 PM4 trades$3,3098 min
3/28/2026, 8:23:18 PM6 trades$3,11911 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-07
04-02
04-14
04-29
05-10
06-04
06-24

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 154 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
39.9% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 22.66/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L18.5 / M31.1 / H50.4