Espagan

@Espagan

#2,938,32822

0xfd7fd789729f1796d90f0341f6b86f53601dc0ce

~31d· 33 markets · 308 tradesVol: $139,1252026-08-04 19:47:27
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

22
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

48% (16/33)9.2/20
0.77x (win $4,231 / loss $5,526)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -0.9610/15
Sortino -1.0410/10
$-0.0430 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 1182 (33 markets)6.6/10
14/25 profitable days (56%)6.5/10
Max DD 139% of peak ($4,737 / $3,418)0/10

Badges

1
DCA Master
Avg 9.3 entries/market

Categories

1
🎭 CULTURE#811,290$-1,099Vol: $139,125

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-1,099
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$139,125
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
33
total markets
Trades
58B / 250S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~31d

Periods

#2
Today
$23
Vol: $663
Week
$87
Vol: $852
Month
$63
Vol: $945
All Time
$-1,099
Vol: $139,125

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
47%
15W / 17L events
Realized PnL
$-1,099
Win Rate
47%
15W / 17L
Profit Factor
0.77x
Avg Win
$264
Avg Loss
$-325

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $2,865 (2.6066859565794984% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$1,743
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?$647
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?$474
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?$292
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$283
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?$188
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?$173
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$163
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?$76
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?$62

Top Losers

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$-4,788
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?$-371
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?$-96
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?$-65
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?$-55
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?$-47
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?$-20
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?$-20
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?$-17
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?$-14

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.049
Sortino
-0.037
HHI
1244
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.043
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
18.6%
Top-5 markets
75.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1.6
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.2
Active Hours
20/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.4h
between trades
Avg Gap
6.1h
between trades
Night Trading
7%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.72
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
5.6

Bot Detection

#6
5
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 8804s — normal for humanCV 1.72 — diverse sizes (human-like)7% night trades — normal pattern20/24 hours — extended activity2 trades/day — normal0.2 markets/day — normal9% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
9.33
Active DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)20.7%
Mid (20-55c)29.3%
High (>55c)50%

Sessions

#12
7/21/2026, 7:25:36 AM26 trades$5,4301 min
7/14/2026, 3:50:16 PM3 trades$5,0940 min
7/11/2026, 3:58:23 PM2 trades$4,4170 min
7/17/2026, 2:18:25 PM9 trades$4,4010 min
7/15/2026, 9:52:23 PM32 trades$3,0540 min
7/8/2026, 10:15:29 PM27 trades$2,5660 min
7/13/2026, 4:18:16 PM2 trades$2,5500 min
7/10/2026, 6:53:16 PM24 trades$2,2660 min
7/10/2026, 2:01:01 PM27 trades$2,1880 min
7/10/2026, 4:01:16 PM2 trades$2,0730 min
7/21/2026, 3:39:21 PM30 trades$1,7020 min
7/3/2026, 7:18:50 AM11 trades$1,2280 min
7/21/2026, 4:00:52 PM2 trades$1,0510 min
7/2/2026, 11:02:16 AM13 trades$8270 min
7/7/2026, 4:04:13 PM2 trades$6930 min
2/4/2026, 4:08:49 PM2 trades$5513 min
7/21/2026, 3:53:04 PM11 trades$5260 min
2/6/2026, 5:14:57 PM1 trades$3710 min
2/10/2026, 11:56:49 AM1 trades$3710 min
2/4/2026, 4:26:28 AM1 trades$2700 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-26
01-30
02-04
02-24
07-07
07-14
08-04

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 4 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
81.2% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 9.33/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L20.7 / M29.3 / H50