@ADRIANCOSTILLA
#695,858210x736e3c2ce873ca10b34f2c220eeb138259c7ae9c
~14d· 14 markets · 126 tradesVol: $64,2752026-08-05 16:43:31
SMART SCORE SYSTEM
Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.
Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.
21
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard
Score Components
36% (5/14)2.9/20
1.03x (win $1,419 / loss $1,381)2.8/15
Annualised Sharpe 0.1763.3/15
Sortino 0.2732.7/10
$+0.0140 per $1 invested0.7/10
HHI 1587 (14 markets)4.6/10
5/11 profitable days (45%)3.9/10
Max DD 97% of peak ($1,179 / $1,217)0/10
Badges
2Profitable
PnL $+1
Lottery Player
74% entries < $0.20
Categories
3🎭 CULTURE#27,506$61Vol: $41,072
🏛️ POLITICS#1,445,504$-40Vol: $23,098
⚽ SPORTS#1,461,265$-20Vol: $105
Overview
#1Net PnL
$1
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$64,275
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
14
total markets
Trades
23B / 103S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~14d
PnL Analysis
#3Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology
Win Rate (events)
36%
5W / 9L events
Realized PnL
$1
Win Rate
36%
5W / 9L
Profit Factor
1.03x
Avg Win
$284
Avg Loss
$-153
Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,339 (1097.3934426229507% of PnL)
Top Winners
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?$858
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?$392
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?$90
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?$76
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$4
Top Losers
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?$-697
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?$-301
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?$-198
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$-80
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$-80
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$-12
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?$-8
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$-3
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?$-2
Risk Metrics
#4Sharpe
0.009
Sortino
0.014
HHI
1652
Moderate
EV per $1
$0.014
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
25.8%
Top-5 markets
81.5%
Behavior Analysis
#5Trades / Day
0.8
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
13/24
Extended
Peak Hour
22:00 UTC
Median Gap
27.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
4.8h
between trades
Night Trading
17%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.65
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
20
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
6.3
Bot Detection
#65
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability
7 indicators analyzed
Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 1676s — normal for humanCV 1.65 — diverse sizes (human-like)17% night trades — unusual hours13/24 hours — normal schedule1 trades/day — normal0.1 markets/day — normal5% maker — normal mix
Timing Patterns
#7Peak hour: 22:00 UTC
0
4
8
12
16
20
DCA Analysis
#8Avg entries/market
10.14
Price Levels
#9Low (<20c)73.9%
Mid (20-55c)17.4%
High (>55c)8.7%
Sessions
#122/10/2026, 12:50:05 PM1 trades$1,4580 min
4/12/2026, 5:50:15 AM16 trades$1,2802 min
6/20/2026, 6:59:01 PM27 trades$1,0420 min
6/29/2026, 10:30:50 PM57 trades$7710 min
1/26/2026, 5:48:11 PM1 trades$7520 min
3/1/2026, 1:17:59 AM1 trades$7000 min
6/20/2026, 8:51:41 PM7 trades$6310 min
2/10/2026, 12:36:49 PM1 trades$6000 min
1/24/2026, 7:27:54 PM1 trades$3600 min
1/23/2026, 5:03:50 PM1 trades$3560 min
1/23/2026, 2:51:40 PM1 trades$2800 min
2/1/2026, 12:56:06 AM1 trades$2500 min
2/4/2026, 3:29:36 PM1 trades$1400 min
2/3/2026, 4:33:22 PM1 trades$520 min
2/3/2026, 8:55:26 PM1 trades$500 min
3/4/2026, 9:40:11 PM3 trades$302 min
3/4/2026, 10:10:07 PM1 trades$100 min
3/4/2026, 12:05:47 AM1 trades$90 min
3/6/2026, 1:13:39 AM2 trades$42 min
3/3/2026, 3:22:31 PM1 trades$30 min
Equity Curve
#13Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-23
01-26
02-03
02-04
02-10
03-03
03-04
03-06
04-12
06-20
06-29
Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)
Max drawdown: 139 days (not recovered)
Profile
#14Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
81.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 10.14/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L73.9 / M17.4 / H8.7