Aerasiva

@Aerasiva

#2,838,34525

0x3134131f7287cb55724b0973fcd87ce370838b95

~173d· 257 markets · 340 tradesVol: $135,220 @Nimbuskah2026-08-04 17:52:38
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

25
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

53% (135/256)11.4/20
0.67x (win $948 / loss $1,411)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -2.8560/15
Sortino -3.5350/10
$-0.1671 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 106 (256 markets)10/10
79/172 profitable days (46%)4/10
Max DD 0% of peak ($480 / $0)0/10

Badges

3
Contrarian
52% entries < $0.55
Win Streak
7 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

7
💰 FINANCE#480,305$-1Vol: $78,122
🏛️ POLITICS#1,415,500$-29Vol: $31,212
CRYPTO#1,202,771$-14Vol: $14,043
SPORTS#1,786,631$-422Vol: $8,792
🎭 CULTURE#489,897$-1Vol: $1,675
🌤️ WEATHER#197,105$-1Vol: $1,312
📈 ECONOMICS#78,879$2Vol: $46

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-463
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$135,220
Total Redeem
$44
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
257
total markets
Trades
284B / 56S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~173d

Periods

#2
Today
$-1
Vol: $0
Week
$-1
Vol: $0
Month
$-1
Vol: $0
All Time
$-463
Vol: $135,220

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
53%
135W / 121L events
Realized PnL
$-463
Win Rate
53%
135W / 121L
Profit Factor
0.67x
Avg Win
$7
Avg Loss
$-12

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $187 (0.40434210242354923% of PnL)

Top Winners

Nets vs. Pistons$80
Raptors vs. Thunder$60
Nets vs. 76ers$48
Warriors vs. Mavericks$43
Heat vs. Hornets$34
Clippers vs. Timberwolves$33
Lightning vs. Devils$33
76ers vs. Raptors$30
Raptors vs. Nets$27
Rockets vs. Thunder$24

Top Losers

Broncos vs. Chiefs: 1H Moneyline$-70
Knicks vs. Magic$-62
Wizards vs. Pelicans$-60
Jazz vs. Lakers$-60
Cavaliers vs. Heat$-53
Rockets vs. 76ers$-50
Royals vs. Athletics$-35
Knicks vs. Raptors$-33
Lakers vs. Mavericks$-32
Pelicans vs. Kings$-32

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.149
Sortino
-0.163
HHI
100
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.167
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
3.5%
Top-5 markets
12.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.5
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
23:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.1h
between trades
Avg Gap
7.2h
between trades
Night Trading
15%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.26
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.7

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 3844s — normal for humanCV 1.26 — diverse sizes (human-like)15% night trades — normal pattern24/24 hours — around the clock0 trades/day — normal0.4 markets/day — normal24% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 23:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.36
Single entry

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)18%
Mid (20-55c)34.2%
High (>55c)47.9%

Sessions

#12
2/9/2025, 4:56:41 AM2 trades$1221 min
1/29/2026, 12:46:20 AM3 trades$731 min
12/26/2025, 12:56:13 AM1 trades$700 min
1/22/2026, 11:59:12 PM2 trades$700 min
2/9/2025, 5:56:32 PM1 trades$660 min
12/12/2025, 10:59:18 PM3 trades$623 min
2/10/2025, 11:56:32 PM1 trades$600 min
3/8/2026, 3:44:17 PM1 trades$600 min
2/9/2026, 11:10:17 PM3 trades$571 min
3/11/2026, 10:18:17 PM3 trades$563 min
1/15/2026, 10:15:34 PM3 trades$551 min
11/9/2025, 6:23:55 AM1 trades$530 min
9/4/2025, 1:08:48 PM3 trades$537 min
12/23/2025, 11:14:53 PM4 trades$512 min
9/27/2025, 3:54:02 PM4 trades$493 min
3/12/2026, 10:35:21 PM3 trades$431 min
3/7/2026, 10:06:55 PM3 trades$420 min
2/9/2025, 12:49:03 AM1 trades$410 min
1/9/2026, 6:21:54 PM2 trades$401 min
9/18/2025, 10:50:04 PM1 trades$400 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
08-17
09-16
12-06
01-22
02-25
03-31
06-19

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
16.5% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.36/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L18 / M34.2 / H47.9