@Allegon

#2,984,94313

0x4a2892d8c3cec95e27aa4bae479d9e621528d58b

~66d· 216 markets · 1951 tradesVol: $1,849,3862026-08-04 22:47:59
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

13
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

47% (89/188)8.7/20
0.64x (win $8,336 / loss $13,088)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -1.5680/15
Sortino -1.6570/10
$-0.1692 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 8705 (188 markets)0/10
21/45 profitable days (47%)4.2/10
Max DD 28484% of peak ($9,058 / $32)0/10

Badges

4
Contrarian
54% entries < $0.55
DCA Master
Avg 10.2 entries/market
Win Streak
5 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#1,624,863$-1,688Vol: $1,767,839
📢 MENTIONS#155,852$-49Vol: $27,890
₿ CRYPTO#42,617$515Vol: $23,152
💰 FINANCE#644,390$-249Vol: $17,872
🌤️ WEATHER#291,905$-234Vol: $5,373
⚽ SPORTS#1,681,894$-102Vol: $2,832
📈 ECONOMICS#657,314$-89Vol: $1,666
💻 TECH#6,076$97Vol: $1,305
🎭 CULTURE#42,063$27Vol: $1,116

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-1,773
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,849,386
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
216
total markets
Trades
736B / 1215S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~66d

Periods

#2
Today
$-0
Vol: $0
Week
$-0
Vol: $0
Month
$-0
Vol: $0
All Time
$-1,773
Vol: $1,849,386

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
47%
89W / 99L events
Realized PnL
$-1,773
Win Rate
47%
89W / 99L
Profit Factor
0.64x
Avg Win
$94
Avg Loss
$-170

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $4,354 (2.454985282674155% of PnL)

Top Winners

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$1,986
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$1,595
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?$773
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14?$510
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?$398
Will Panama be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup?$394
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?$322
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?$304
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June?$204
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$191

Top Losers

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?$-7,783
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET$-948
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?$-385
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?$-378
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?$-304
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$-260
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?$-236
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$-215
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?$-204
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?$-191

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.081
Sortino
-0.058
HHI
3243
Concentrated
EV per $1
$-0.131
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
45.2%
Top-5 markets
89.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
21.0
Active
Markets / Day
2.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
18:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.0h
between trades
Night Trading
15%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.17
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
14.9

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 276s — normal for humanCV 3.17 — diverse sizes (human-like)15% night trades — normal pattern24/24 hours — around the clock21 trades/day — high frequency2.3 markets/day — normal38% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 18:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
10.25
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)13.2%
Mid (20-55c)40.4%
High (>55c)46.5%

Sessions

#12
4/25/2026, 7:44:56 AM2 trades$200,0000 min
4/30/2026, 8:49:32 PM38 trades$160,5984 min
4/24/2026, 1:16:40 PM6 trades$114,5005 min
4/24/2026, 1:52:06 PM6 trades$112,5001 min
4/26/2026, 8:33:52 AM2 trades$100,0000 min
4/24/2026, 5:11:42 PM2 trades$50,0000 min
4/29/2026, 8:28:10 PM2 trades$50,0000 min
5/21/2026, 2:45:10 PM6 trades$20,0002 min
4/29/2026, 4:46:44 PM6 trades$18,4927 min
4/25/2026, 7:56:34 AM2 trades$16,5000 min
4/30/2026, 4:59:44 AM15 trades$14,7320 min
4/30/2026, 9:08:42 PM7 trades$10,0000 min
4/25/2026, 5:24:28 PM2 trades$9,9000 min
4/30/2026, 7:28:24 PM3 trades$8,5000 min
4/24/2026, 8:54:02 PM2 trades$6,5000 min
5/22/2026, 8:16:19 PM4 trades$6,0000 min
4/26/2026, 9:33:00 AM2 trades$5,0000 min
6/1/2026, 5:17:37 PM5 trades$2,6590 min
4/30/2026, 6:54:52 AM5 trades$2,5930 min
4/30/2026, 8:41:24 PM2 trades$2,5550 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-11
05-05
05-12
05-25
06-06
06-14
07-08

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 19 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
18% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
62.3% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 10.25/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L13.2 / M40.4 / H46.5