Amrilyo

@Amrilyo

#2,904,38017

0x8278bd2ba325b2c569057f0ab64747c255a922a1

~73d· 164 markets · 1071 tradesVol: $130,4912026-08-05 16:39:44
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

17
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

40% (65/162)5.1/20
0.50x (win $4,505 / loss $8,983)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -4.1830/15
Sortino -4.3610/10
$-0.1696 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 341 (162 markets)10/10
19/50 profitable days (38%)2/10
Max DD 630% of peak ($5,858 / $930)0/10

Badges

2
Contrarian
63% entries < $0.55
🦉Night Owl
23/24 hours active

Categories

7
🏛️ POLITICS#42,360$221Vol: $89,152
SPORTS#1,702,527$-125Vol: $21,721
💰 FINANCE#648,440$-396Vol: $15,413
📈 ECONOMICS#653,506$-67Vol: $2,420
CRYPTO#1,561,762$-286Vol: $784
📢 MENTIONS#165,709$-118Vol: $573
🎭 CULTURE#744,598$-31Vol: $428

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-801
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$130,491
Total Redeem
$479
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
164
total markets
Trades
520B / 551S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~73d

Periods

#2
Today
$155
Vol: $0
Month
$17
Vol: $0
All Time
$-801
Vol: $130,491

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
40%
65W / 97L events
Realized PnL
$-801
Win Rate
40%
65W / 97L
Profit Factor
0.5x
Avg Win
$69
Avg Loss
$-100

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,279 (1.5957850342512758% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will AMC Entertainment (AMC) beat quarterly earnings?$438
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May?$428
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$413
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?$343
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?$311
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?$198
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?$179
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?$177
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?$167
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?$145

Top Losers

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?$-1,935
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?$-1,563
Will Google reach $375 in April?$-876
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$-576
US forces enter Iran by April 30?$-490
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?$-310
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $153 Week of May 4 2026?$-205
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$-160
Will IONQ (IONQ) beat quarterly earnings?$-154
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$-148

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.217
Sortino
-0.198
HHI
708
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.129
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
19.5%
Top-5 markets
44.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
7.1
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.1
Active Hours
23/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
14.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.5h
between trades
Night Trading
5%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.66
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
8.5

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 878s — normal for humanCV 1.66 — diverse sizes (human-like)5% night trades — normal pattern23/24 hours — around the clock7 trades/day — normal1.1 markets/day — normal30% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
7.9
Active DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)23.8%
Mid (20-55c)38.8%
High (>55c)37.3%

Sessions

#12
4/22/2026, 10:27:44 PM19 trades$1,8225 min
4/24/2026, 3:37:46 PM11 trades$1,6960 min
4/26/2026, 9:53:04 AM23 trades$1,18413 min
4/17/2026, 4:10:12 PM7 trades$1,1795 min
4/22/2026, 5:49:26 PM14 trades$1,1323 min
4/1/2026, 7:17:45 PM8 trades$1,0541 min
4/13/2026, 10:12:27 AM18 trades$1,0506 min
4/15/2026, 4:54:20 PM16 trades$1,0211 min
4/16/2026, 4:52:38 PM18 trades$9610 min
4/19/2026, 8:54:18 PM2 trades$9260 min
5/6/2026, 12:10:50 AM8 trades$9129 min
7/7/2026, 1:11:43 AM8 trades$8890 min
4/26/2026, 7:26:22 PM14 trades$8683 min
4/19/2026, 3:01:30 PM8 trades$8650 min
4/17/2026, 10:06:36 AM11 trades$8630 min
4/27/2026, 1:47:08 PM2 trades$8250 min
4/19/2026, 1:26:10 PM18 trades$8071 min
5/1/2026, 10:23:02 AM4 trades$8001 min
4/19/2026, 7:52:04 PM9 trades$7890 min
4/19/2026, 6:36:52 AM7 trades$7350 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-26
03-12
04-09
04-19
04-29
05-16
06-04

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 29 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
51.4% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 7.9/mkt
Entry Bias
MIXED
L23.8 / M38.8 / H37.3