Billy-Ray

@Billy-Ray

#17,25686

0xec3ab7f7b240e61434b66e18c004353976dfa709

~167d· 887 markets · 15379 tradesVol: $2,263,458 @BillyRayDeFi2026-08-04 17:18:44
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

86
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

90% (794/886)20/20
1.68x (win $53,587 / loss $31,990)10.9/15
Annualised Sharpe 1.69115/15
Sortino 4.30010/10
$+0.0197 per $1 invested1/10
HHI 71 (886 markets)10/10
118/154 profitable days (77%)10/10
Max DD 26% of peak ($6,221 / $24,173)8.9/10

Badges

9
Sniper
Win rate 90%
Profitable
PnL $+8,231
DCA Master
Avg 18.0 entries/market
Whale
$1,096,884 invested
Consistent
118/154 profitable days
High Roller
$4,853/day
Cool Head
Max DD 26%
Win Streak
65 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

8
🌤️ WEATHER#125$14,602Vol: $1,262,867
🎭 CULTURE#2,904$2,202Vol: $299,516
SPORTS#1,813,673$-726Vol: $270,363
CRYPTO#1,674,298$-14,442Vol: $204,387
💰 FINANCE#1,502$3,419Vol: $133,834
🏛️ POLITICS#1,588,324$-381Vol: $27,434
📢 MENTIONS#2,398$444Vol: $12,291
💻 TECH#80,272$0Vol: $110

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$8,231
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$2,263,458
Total Redeem
$100,979
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
887
total markets
Trades
10806B / 4573S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~167d

Periods

#2
Today
$6
Vol: $424
Week
$-199
Vol: $4,267
Month
$-65
Vol: $9,407
All Time
$8,231
Vol: $2,263,458

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
90%
794W / 92L events
Realized PnL
$8,231
Win Rate
90%
794W / 92L
Profit Factor
1.68x
Avg Win
$67
Avg Loss
$-385

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $19,244 (2.338097662263186% of PnL)

Top Winners

MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?$12,560
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?$4,956
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 2?$1,728
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$1,532
Will Green Day perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?$1,349
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?$1,258
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?$1,191
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 19?$989
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 1?$869
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 2?$828

Top Losers

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4?$-4,773
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 4?$-2,054
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 4?$-1,991
Will "DtMF - Bad Bunny" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?$-1,926
Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?$-1,739
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$-1,640
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 24?$-1,478
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6?$-1,405
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 21-27?$-1,026
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 16?$-880

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.088
Sortino
0.128
HHI
80
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.019
Kelly %
41.5%
Half-Kelly
20.8%
Top-1 market
4.8%
Top-5 markets
13.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
68.0
Very active
Markets / Day
3.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
17.9m
between trades
Night Trading
4%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.91
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
14 min
Avg Trades / Session
29.3

Bot Detection

#6
40
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 110s — normal for humanCV 2.91 — diverse sizes (human-like)4% night trades — normal pattern24/24 hours — around the clock68 trades/day — mass trading3.9 markets/day — normal66% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
18.05
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)7%
Mid (20-55c)5.2%
High (>55c)87.8%

Sessions

#12
5/3/2026, 1:17:40 PM47 trades$29,08813 min
5/15/2026, 2:43:35 PM80 trades$24,77648 min
5/6/2026, 2:51:42 PM39 trades$18,5553 min
5/19/2026, 7:55:52 AM105 trades$18,55126 min
4/27/2026, 3:28:28 PM16 trades$16,0591 min
4/30/2026, 8:54:22 PM25 trades$15,96313 min
2/9/2026, 4:23:23 AM7 trades$11,7745 min
5/1/2026, 3:46:16 PM138 trades$10,20443 min
5/4/2026, 4:04:16 PM25 trades$7,93814 min
4/27/2026, 1:00:16 PM2 trades$7,8820 min
4/24/2026, 12:52:52 PM43 trades$7,47620 min
4/3/2026, 9:52:49 AM46 trades$7,2704 min
4/4/2026, 7:08:27 PM4 trades$7,0001 min
6/5/2026, 3:33:10 PM11 trades$6,9965 min
2/9/2026, 2:42:47 AM12 trades$6,78511 min
3/28/2026, 10:07:55 AM6 trades$6,5756 min
4/30/2026, 12:43:10 PM26 trades$6,31014 min
4/25/2026, 2:41:34 PM9 trades$6,0943 min
3/22/2026, 12:26:19 PM15 trades$5,96512 min
5/4/2026, 3:47:06 PM26 trades$5,90010 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-21
01-15
02-12
03-09
04-03
05-16
07-24

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 24 days (recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
46% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
29.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 18.05/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L7 / M5.2 / H87.8