CapitainPike

@CapitainPike

#2,690,69977

0xd5642f8828deb775136b0c39228bfe13d32558d0

~28d· 58 markets · 1003 tradesVol: $85,4202026-08-05 00:13:50
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

77
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

34% (20/58)2.2/20
2.11x (win $4,723 / loss $2,239)15/15
Annualised Sharpe 6.94615/15
Sortino 27.56810/10
$+0.6356 per $1 invested10/10
HHI 613 (58 markets)9.4/10
12/24 profitable days (50%)5/10
Max DD 18% of peak ($520 / $2,887)10/10

Badges

2
Contrarian
71% entries < $0.55
Cool Head
Max DD 18%

Categories

3
🌤️ WEATHER#295,758$-542Vol: $84,074
🏛️ POLITICS#35,956$300Vol: $1,000
SPORTS#155,170$58Vol: $346

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-184
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$85,420
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
58
total markets
Trades
537B / 466S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~28d

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
34%
20W / 38L events
Realized PnL
$-184
Win Rate
34%
20W / 38L
Profit Factor
2.11x
Avg Win
$236
Avg Loss
$-62

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $2,327 (12.665469387755103% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$1,200
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 16?$718
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or below on May 15?$410
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16?$322
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 28?$277
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 7?$265
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9?$221
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 25?$166
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 5?$166
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 6?$157

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 16?$-364
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?$-198
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15?$-169
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11?$-136
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 28?$-134
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12?$-128
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 28?$-113
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 14?$-84
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13?$-83
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16?$-74

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.356
Sortino
1.405
HHI
1521
Moderate
EV per $1
$0.527
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
35.8%
Top-5 markets
55.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
12.2
Active
Markets / Day
0.7
Active Hours
20/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
54.1m
between trades
Night Trading
14%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.32
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
13.7

Bot Detection

#6
10
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 75s — normal for humanCV 4.32 — diverse sizes (human-like)14% night trades — normal pattern20/24 hours — extended activity12 trades/day — very active0.7 markets/day — normal53% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
17.48
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)22%
Mid (20-55c)49%
High (>55c)29.1%

Sessions

#12
4/9/2026, 7:19:33 PM4 trades$1,0000 min
5/16/2026, 5:02:56 PM76 trades$59131 min
6/27/2026, 8:29:04 PM21 trades$3116 min
6/12/2026, 12:10:21 PM16 trades$30415 min
5/15/2026, 12:37:00 PM21 trades$2387 min
5/11/2026, 4:44:12 PM46 trades$19717 min
6/11/2026, 4:05:07 PM30 trades$1877 min
6/14/2026, 6:37:33 PM21 trades$1858 min
5/16/2026, 5:39:07 PM25 trades$16918 min
6/16/2026, 3:49:05 PM24 trades$1613 min
6/16/2026, 3:08:32 PM11 trades$1611 min
4/23/2026, 4:24:28 PM5 trades$1551 min
5/13/2026, 6:54:49 PM7 trades$1451 min
5/16/2026, 4:01:42 PM18 trades$1441 min
6/28/2026, 5:15:20 PM22 trades$1408 min
6/16/2026, 4:47:07 PM12 trades$1335 min
5/11/2026, 12:29:59 PM39 trades$13120 min
6/8/2026, 12:02:25 AM13 trades$1280 min
5/16/2026, 2:46:52 PM34 trades$1278 min
6/11/2026, 5:08:37 PM9 trades$1183 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-09
05-13
05-27
06-07
06-12
06-16

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 6 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
92% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
46.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 17.48/mkt
Entry Bias
MIXED
L22 / M49 / H29.1