Cevher

@Cevher

#189,31656

0xa3d7ebaaa76d08a5776c357bbfa92cef3f02afd6

~72d· 119 markets · 293 tradesVol: $22,324 @bmwe90lci2026-08-04 20:39:54
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

56
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

47% (54/115)8.5/20
1.14x (win $2,074 / loss $1,812)4.3/15
Annualised Sharpe 0.76014.3/15
Sortino 0.9869.9/10
$+0.0548 per $1 invested2.7/10
HHI 783 (115 markets)8.6/10
29/49 profitable days (59%)7.3/10
Max DD 79% of peak ($995 / $1,258)0/10

Badges

3
Profitable
PnL $+165
Contrarian
60% entries < $0.55
Win Streak
5 wins in a row

Categories

6
🏛️ POLITICS#46,800$183Vol: $19,157
SPORTS#330,062$5Vol: $1,903
🎭 CULTURE#128,804$2Vol: $888
CRYPTO#1,206,850$-14Vol: $344
📈 ECONOMICS#563,924$-5Vol: $19
💰 FINANCE#411,553$-0Vol: $3

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$165
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$22,324
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
119
total markets
Trades
178B / 115S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~72d

Periods

#2
Today
$-1
Vol: $0
Week
$-1
Vol: $0
Month
$-1
Vol: $0
All Time
$165
Vol: $22,324

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
47%
54W / 61L events
Realized PnL
$165
Win Rate
47%
54W / 61L
Profit Factor
1.14x
Avg Win
$38
Avg Loss
$-30

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,106 (6.703310696095077% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Trump visit China by March 31?$603
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?$254
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$248
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$229
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?$171
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?$119
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$59
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?$51
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$34
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$34

Top Losers

Will Trump visit China by May 31?$-549
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$-400
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?$-258
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?$-140
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?$-126
Nothing Ever Happens: January$-50
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?$-46
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?$-31
Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last 6–10 seconds?$-25
US forces enter Iran by December 31?$-19

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.039
Sortino
0.035
HHI
793
Moderate
EV per $1
$0.044
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
14.2%
Top-5 markets
52.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1.2
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.5
Active Hours
21/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
10.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.8h
between trades
Night Trading
7%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.46
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.5

Bot Detection

#6
5
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 602s — normal for humanCV 1.46 — diverse sizes (human-like)6% night trades — normal pattern21/24 hours — extended activity1 trades/day — normal0.5 markets/day — normal16% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.63
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)14.6%
Mid (20-55c)44.9%
High (>55c)40.4%

Sessions

#12
4/21/2026, 8:01:32 PM2 trades$9090 min
5/23/2026, 5:14:16 PM11 trades$5580 min
4/15/2026, 12:02:48 PM2 trades$5260 min
3/16/2026, 9:06:51 PM1 trades$4720 min
4/10/2026, 12:29:31 PM2 trades$4000 min
3/1/2026, 10:03:31 AM7 trades$3701 min
3/14/2026, 9:49:51 PM2 trades$3514 min
2/25/2026, 6:35:06 AM5 trades$3393 min
4/14/2026, 5:09:52 PM7 trades$3350 min
6/21/2026, 8:36:41 PM11 trades$3340 min
2/28/2026, 7:27:07 PM1 trades$3080 min
4/12/2026, 9:57:37 PM2 trades$2850 min
4/8/2026, 5:43:29 PM3 trades$2650 min
3/3/2026, 2:28:03 PM2 trades$2311 min
5/11/2026, 5:11:23 AM4 trades$2070 min
4/23/2026, 4:11:08 PM2 trades$2000 min
3/11/2026, 2:14:57 PM2 trades$1960 min
3/3/2026, 5:43:35 AM3 trades$1871 min
4/12/2026, 9:16:59 PM2 trades$1670 min
2/28/2026, 10:07:29 PM10 trades$15911 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
10-26
11-14
11-25
12-27
03-01
03-14
05-23

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 39 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
39.2% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.63/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L14.6 / M44.9 / H40.4