ElCactus

@ElCactus

#3,021,38518

0x6de2f93636e936c6c4401c3b0ce6ed1de26dc71f

~107d· 137 markets · 1261 tradesVol: $234,3282026-08-06 06:42:56
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

18
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

41% (56/136)5.6/20
0.26x (win $968 / loss $3,756)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -7.0600/15
Sortino -6.8550/10
$-0.1887 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 411 (136 markets)10/10
28/73 profitable days (38%)2.1/10
Max DD 6980% of peak ($2,863 / $41)0/10

Badges

3
Lottery Player
83% entries < $0.20
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
🏗️Market Maker
79% maker orders

Categories

7
🎭 CULTURE#815,126$-2,824Vol: $225,286
💻 TECH#12,123$24Vol: $6,573
🏛️ POLITICS#750,004$-0Vol: $1,513
📈 ECONOMICS#56,060$6Vol: $330
⚽ SPORTS#323,815$6Vol: $320
₿ CRYPTO#353,614$2Vol: $277
💰 FINANCE#491,413$-2Vol: $30

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-2,789
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$234,328
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
137
total markets
Trades
966B / 295S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~107d

Periods

#2
Today
$5
Vol: $0
Week
$17
Vol: $2,605
Month
$17
Vol: $2,605
All Time
$-2,789
Vol: $234,328

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
41%
56W / 80L events
Realized PnL
$-2,789
Win Rate
41%
56W / 80L
Profit Factor
0.26x
Avg Win
$17
Avg Loss
$-47

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $479 (0.1718087738548592% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22?$214
Will Elon tweet 500–524 times August 8–August 15?$176
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times August 15–August 22?$90
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 1–August 8?$44
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times August 15–August 22?$43
Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 1–August 8?$30
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 25–August 1?$29
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1?$29
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?$28
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)$26

Top Losers

Will Elon tweet 450 or more times August 8–August 15?$-552
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 25–August 1?$-442
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1?$-200
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29?$-191
Will Elon tweet 525–549 times August 8–August 15?$-187
Will Elon tweet 315–329 times August 1–August 8?$-176
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 22–August 29?$-120
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times August 1–August 8?$-100
Will Elon tweet 345–359 times August 1–August 8?$-91
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times?$-90

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.367
Sortino
-0.334
HHI
372
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.189
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
12.2%
Top-5 markets
32.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
3.2
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
6.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.6h
between trades
Night Trading
30%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.74
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.4

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 370s — normal for humanCV 2.74 — diverse sizes (human-like)30% night trades — never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clock3 trades/day — normal0.4 markets/day — normal79% maker — frequent liquidity provider

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
9.26
Active DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)82.8%
Mid (20-55c)11.9%
High (>55c)5.3%

Sessions

#12
8/15/2025, 8:49:28 AM2 trades$5093 min
8/11/2025, 2:11:30 AM1 trades$5000 min
8/22/2025, 12:32:30 PM1 trades$4560 min
8/22/2025, 12:07:34 PM1 trades$4450 min
8/22/2025, 1:13:24 PM1 trades$4410 min
8/14/2025, 3:06:33 PM2 trades$4334 min
8/6/2025, 9:45:50 PM6 trades$4245 min
8/22/2025, 10:32:02 AM1 trades$4080 min
8/14/2025, 3:36:41 PM4 trades$3703 min
8/27/2025, 3:17:09 AM2 trades$3700 min
8/19/2025, 11:25:08 PM1 trades$3580 min
8/8/2025, 4:24:29 PM5 trades$3392 min
8/15/2025, 2:16:20 AM1 trades$3240 min
8/14/2025, 9:50:20 PM2 trades$3141 min
8/20/2025, 6:03:20 AM1 trades$3070 min
7/30/2025, 1:56:03 AM2 trades$3052 min
8/14/2025, 5:31:25 PM1 trades$3040 min
8/8/2025, 7:33:53 AM2 trades$3040 min
8/20/2025, 12:25:14 AM7 trades$2795 min
8/28/2025, 3:28:51 AM2 trades$2720 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
07-14
07-31
08-14
09-04
09-25
10-25
06-15

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 124 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
23.4% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 9.26/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L82.8 / M11.9 / H5.3