FelonMusk

@FelonMusk

#3,018,22411

0x765abff2fb7d3118a5b2ca6b492768d2e664efb4

~360d· 749 markets · 9352 tradesVol: $2,115,2292026-08-05 17:40:05
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

11
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

23% (171/749)0/20
0.91x (win $16,694 / loss $18,293)1.4/15
Annualised Sharpe -0.5300/15
Sortino -0.8120/10
$-0.0460 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 100 (749 markets)10/10
70/277 profitable days (25%)0/10
Max DD 297% of peak ($4,814 / $1,623)0/10

Badges

4
Lottery Player
97% entries < $0.20
Win Streak
5 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
🏗️Market Maker
97% maker orders

Categories

7
🎭 CULTURE#810,512$-708Vol: $2,012,337
💻 TECH#256,570$-530Vol: $45,822
📢 MENTIONS#175,298$-1,027Vol: $20,693
₿ CRYPTO#1,593,898$-526Vol: $19,699
🏛️ POLITICS#59,751$114Vol: $13,328
📈 ECONOMICS#19,864$42Vol: $3,100
⚽ SPORTS#1,496,926$-25Vol: $250

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-2,660
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$2,115,229
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
749
total markets
Trades
8198B / 1154S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~360d

Periods

#2
Week
$-7
Vol: $5,000
Month
$-7
Vol: $5,000
All Time
$-2,660
Vol: $2,115,229

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
23%
171W / 578L events
Realized PnL
$-2,660
Win Rate
23%
171W / 578L
Profit Factor
0.91x
Avg Win
$98
Avg Loss
$-32

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $2,790 (1.0490923720146785% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8?$970
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 18–25?$935
Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?$885
Will Elon Musk tweet 800 or more times February 7-14?$803
Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 20–27?$749
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$730
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?$542
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?$496
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?$465
Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8?$427

Top Losers

Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18?$-1,517
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6?$-455
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week?$-450
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18?$-351
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 2–9?$-311
Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 20–27?$-300
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?$-295
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $117K on August 8?$-285
Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?$-240
Will Elon tweet 200–214 times May 30–June 6?$-230

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.028
Sortino
-0.040
HHI
98
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.046
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
4.8%
Top-5 markets
16.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
15.9
Active
Markets / Day
1.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
50.1m
between trades
Night Trading
25%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.24
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.3

Bot Detection

#6
40
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 168s — normal for humanCV 6.24 — diverse sizes (human-like)25% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock16 trades/day — very active1.3 markets/day — normal97% maker — systematic market making

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
12.49
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)97.5%
Mid (20-55c)1.9%
High (>55c)0.7%

Sessions

#12
7/18/2025, 12:19:14 PM1 trades$1,5540 min
2/14/2025, 4:41:38 PM3 trades$1,4006 min
2/14/2025, 3:09:11 PM10 trades$9926 min
8/5/2025, 10:27:02 AM1 trades$9900 min
4/25/2025, 1:01:42 PM1 trades$9750 min
7/10/2025, 6:47:54 PM1 trades$8790 min
2/11/2025, 9:36:24 AM2 trades$8000 min
3/21/2025, 2:03:21 PM4 trades$7053 min
6/5/2025, 12:18:40 PM10 trades$7003 min
6/5/2025, 9:56:38 PM1 trades$6670 min
8/7/2025, 7:35:35 PM6 trades$6142 min
4/28/2026, 2:10:08 PM3 trades$6110 min
6/5/2025, 1:28:14 PM1 trades$6080 min
7/4/2025, 10:29:05 AM1 trades$5910 min
7/10/2025, 7:46:12 PM2 trades$5550 min
7/4/2025, 6:35:29 AM2 trades$5260 min
6/5/2025, 2:21:22 PM2 trades$5261 min
9/30/2025, 3:52:21 AM1 trades$5150 min
8/7/2025, 11:45:35 PM1 trades$5120 min
7/10/2025, 9:28:20 PM2 trades$4960 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-23
04-30
07-26
10-07
12-17
03-15
08-04

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 275 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
12.3% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 12.49/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L97.5 / M1.9 / H0.7