Gugusik-First

@Gugusik-First

#2,723,34059

0x83b9feb698e47ac7bb367fb4010b7a0950350ad4

~65d· 296 markets · 1147 tradesVol: $155,4532026-08-04 20:33:24
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

59
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

30% (88/296)0/20
1.61x (win $1,997 / loss $1,240)10.1/15
Annualised Sharpe 1.16715/15
Sortino 4.69610/10
$+0.3888 per $1 invested10/10
HHI 832 (296 markets)8.3/10
14/64 profitable days (22%)0/10
Max DD 43% of peak ($554 / $1,303)5.5/10

Badges

2
Lottery Player
63% entries < $0.20
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

7
₿ CRYPTO#1,360,039$-40Vol: $75,587
🌤️ WEATHER#286,300$-111Vol: $74,777
🎭 CULTURE#754,171$-41Vol: $4,584
🏛️ POLITICS#1,212,258$-7Vol: $335
📈 ECONOMICS#617,374$-15Vol: $160
💰 FINANCE#372,032$-0Vol: $6
⚽ SPORTS#626,988$-0Vol: $4

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-215
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$155,453
Total Redeem
$398
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
296
total markets
Trades
438B / 709S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~65d

Periods

#2
Today
$-25
Vol: $102
Week
$-0
Vol: $297
Month
$-14
Vol: $3,615
All Time
$-215
Vol: $155,453

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
30%
88W / 208L events
Realized PnL
$-215
Win Rate
30%
88W / 208L
Profit Factor
1.61x
Avg Win
$23
Avg Loss
$-7

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,773 (8.254421895363992% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20?$1,508
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 7?$199
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET$66
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET$19
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 14?$18
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 11?$15
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 11?$13
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 13?$12
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 27?$9

Top Losers

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 22?$-352
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?$-97
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 8?$-45
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 24?$-40
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5?$-39
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 8?$-36
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 20?$-28
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 23?$-27
GTA VI released before June 2026?$-25
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 23?$-20

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.061
Sortino
0.224
HHI
1141
Moderate
EV per $1
$0.379
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
29.7%
Top-5 markets
56.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
9.9
Moderate
Markets / Day
2.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
29.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.4h
between trades
Night Trading
14%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.51
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
7.3

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 1791s — normal for humanCV 6.51 — diverse sizes (human-like)14% night trades — normal pattern24/24 hours — around the clock10 trades/day — normal2.6 markets/day — normal41% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.96
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)62.6%
Mid (20-55c)8.4%
High (>55c)29%

Sessions

#12
6/22/2026, 3:06:53 PM19 trades$5,7760 min
6/5/2026, 2:17:40 PM6 trades$3,2483 min
8/1/2026, 2:15:54 PM16 trades$2,6350 min
6/22/2026, 2:41:46 PM10 trades$1,7204 min
5/7/2026, 7:24:01 PM13 trades$1,2280 min
5/11/2026, 9:55:37 AM2 trades$1,1110 min
6/5/2026, 3:00:12 PM2 trades$1,0000 min
7/14/2026, 7:10:50 AM9 trades$9990 min
6/25/2026, 8:32:14 PM7 trades$8160 min
7/2/2026, 2:34:07 PM9 trades$6771 min
6/20/2026, 2:39:47 PM4 trades$6580 min
7/20/2026, 1:59:49 PM2 trades$6250 min
6/24/2026, 3:17:22 PM2 trades$6060 min
6/20/2026, 3:30:04 PM1 trades$5610 min
5/19/2026, 7:41:28 PM7 trades$4340 min
6/23/2026, 8:24:13 AM5 trades$4080 min
5/7/2026, 5:19:23 PM2 trades$4050 min
5/7/2026, 7:43:00 PM9 trades$3835 min
6/22/2026, 2:33:28 PM2 trades$3700 min
6/16/2026, 4:36:44 PM16 trades$1933 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-24
05-08
05-23
06-15
06-26
07-12
07-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 42 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
26% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
61.8% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.96/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L62.6 / M8.4 / H29